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%% This BibTeX bibliography file was created using BibDesk.
%% https://bibdesk.sourceforge.io/
%% Created for Alexander Coppock at 2022-06-15 13:46:54 -0400
%% Saved with string encoding Unicode (UTF-8)
@article{aguilar2015,
abstract = {Is there a gender gap in Latin American attitudes toward women politicians? While scholars of Latin America have examined the role of institutions and quotas in women's electoral success, less attention has been paid to voters' attitudes about women leaders. In this paper, we report on two survey experiments and an observational study in Brazil looking at the effect of candidate gender on vote choice. We asked subjects to chose a candidate from a hypothetical ballot while randomly varying candidates' gender. We find a strong and consistent 5--7 percentage point pro-female bias. Our experiments illustrate a novel approach to testing candidate choice models.},
author = {Rosario Aguilar and Saul Cunow and Scott Desposato},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.03.011},
issn = {0261-3794},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
keywords = {Experiments, Elections, Women's representation, Candidate gender, Latin America, Brazil},
pages = {230-242},
title = {Choice sets, gender, and candidate choice in Brazil},
volume = {39},
year = {2015}}
@article{Foos2021,
abstract = { Three decades ago Huckfeldt and Sprague hypothesized that partisan context constrains information sharing between neighbors. We develop their theory to identify implications for campaign mobilization in homogeneous and mixed-partisan contexts. We argue that get-out-the-vote (GOTV) spillover effects should vary with the proportion of rival party supporters in a neighborhood. Using two samples of households that were either included or excluded prerandom assignment from a street-level GOTV experiment, we test this expectation of differential spillover effects. We estimate neighborhood party preferences using targeting data made available by the UK Labour Party. We find that spillover effects on party supporters are smaller in neighborhoods that include larger shares of rival party supporters. Rival partisans are mobilized in mixed-partisan neighborhoods where the probability of spillovers from mixed-partisan households is higher. This article extends Huckfeldt and Sprague's theory and demonstrates the importance of social dynamics for parties' campaign strategies. },
author = {Foos, Florian and John, Peter and M\"{u}ller, Christian and Cunningham, Kevin},
date-added = {2022-06-15 13:46:41 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-15 13:46:53 -0400},
journal = {The Journal of Politics},
number = {3},
pages = {1190-1197},
title = {Social Mobilization in Partisan Spaces},
volume = {83},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1086/710970}}
@article{francois2015power,
author = {Francois, Patrick and Rainer, Ilia and Trebbi, Francesco},
journal = {Econometrica},
number = {2},
pages = {465--503},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {How is power shared in Africa?},
volume = {83},
year = {2015}}
@article{yao2018using,
author = {Yao, Yuling and Vehtari, Aki and Simpson, Daniel and Gelman, Andrew},
journal = {Bayesian Analysis},
number = {3},
pages = {917--1007},
publisher = {International Society for Bayesian Analysis},
title = {Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion)},
volume = {13},
year = {2018}}
@article{GABELICA2022,
abstract = {Objectives
To analyse researchers' compliance with their Data Availability Statement (DAS) from manuscripts published in open access journals with the mandatory DAS.
Study Design and Setting
We analyzed all articles from 333 open-access journals published during January 2019 by BioMed Central. We categorized types of DAS. We surveyed corresponding authors who wrote in DAS that they would share the data. A consent to participate in the study was sought for all included manuscripts. After accessing raw data sets, we checked whether data were available in a way that enabled re-analysis.
Results
Of 3556 analyzed articles, 3416 contained DAS. The most frequent DAS category (42%) indicated that the datasets are available on reasonable request. Among 1792 manuscripts in which DAS indicated that authors are willing to share their data, 1670 (93%) authors either did not respond or declined to share their data with us. Among 254 (14%) of 1792 authors who responded to our query for data sharing, only 122 (6.8%) provided the requested data.
Conclusion
Even when authors indicate in their manuscript that they will share data upon request, the compliance rate is the same as for authors who do not provide DAS, suggesting that DAS may not be sufficient to ensure data sharing.},
author = {Mirko Gabelica and Ru{\v z}ica Boj{\v c}i{\'c} and Livia Puljak},
date-added = {2022-06-13 12:48:29 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-13 12:48:43 -0400},
journal = {Journal of Clinical Epidemiology},
note = {Forthcoming},
title = {Many researchers were not compliant with their published data sharing statement: mixed-methods study},
year = {2022},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089543562200141X},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.05.019}}
@incollection{levine2021form,
address = {Cambridge, UK},
author = {Levine, Adam Seth},
booktitle = {Advances in Experimental Political Science},
date-added = {2022-06-13 10:55:17 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-13 10:57:19 -0400},
pages = {199--216},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {How to form organizational partnerships to run experiments},
year = {2021}}
@article{bccmapsr,
author = {Blair, Graeme and Cooper, Jasper and Coppock, Alexander and Humphreys, Macartan},
date-added = {2022-06-10 19:48:41 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 19:49:11 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {3},
pages = {838--859},
title = {Declaring and Diagnosing Research Designs},
volume = {113},
year = {2019}}
@article{young2020,
author = {Baron, Hannah and Young, Lauren E.},
date-added = {2022-06-10 19:45:31 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 19:46:11 -0400},
journal = {Political Science Research and Methods},
note = {Forthcoming},
pages = {1--8},
title = {From principles to practice: methods to increase the transparency of research ethics in violent contexts},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2021.48}}
@article{Windt2019,
abstract = { Do citizens view state and traditional authorities as substitutes or complements? Past work has been divided on this question. Some scholars point to competition between attitudes toward these entities, suggesting substitution, whereas others highlight positive correlations, suggesting complementarity. Addressing this question, however, is difficult, as it requires assessing the effects of exogenous changes in the latent valuation of one authority on an individual's support for another. We show that this quantity---a type of elasticity---cannot be inferred from correlations between support for the two forms of authority. We employ a structural model to estimate this elasticity of substitution using data from 816 villages in the Democratic Republic of Congo and plausibly exogenous rainfall and conflict shocks. Despite prima facie evidence for substitution logics, our model's outcomes are consistent with complementarity; positive changes in citizen valuation of the chief appear to translate into positive changes in support for the government. },
author = {Peter van der Windt and Macartan Humphreys and Lily Medina and Jeffrey F. Timmons and Maarten Voors},
date-added = {2022-06-10 15:49:05 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 15:49:16 -0400},
journal = {Comparative Political Studies},
number = {12},
pages = {1810-1840},
title = {Citizen Attitudes Toward Traditional and State Authorities: Substitutes or Complements?},
volume = {52},
year = {2019},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018806529}}
@article{Frey2022,
abstract = {Abstract Electoral coalitions between ideologically incompatible parties -- among other unconventional electoral strategies -- may seem to threaten effective representation, signaling a breakdown of programmatic politics. However, this perspective overlooks parties' and voters' dynamic considerations. We propose and estimate a model of dynamic electoral competition in which a short-term ideology compromise, via an electoral coalition, offers opposition parties (and voters) the opportunity to remove an entrenched incumbent party from office, thus leveling the playing field in the future. This tradeoff provides a previously unrecognized rationale for coalition formation in elections. We take our model to data from Mexican municipal elections between 1995 and 2016 and show that coalitions between parties on opposite ends of the ideology spectrum have served as an instrument of democratic consolidation.},
author = {Frey, Anderson and L{\'o}pez-Moctezuma, Gabriel and Montero, Sergio},
date-added = {2022-06-10 15:44:44 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 15:45:12 -0400},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
note = {Forthcoming},
title = {Sleeping with the Enemy: Effective Representation under Dynamic Electoral Competition},
year = {2022},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12681},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12681}}
@incollection{DELLAVIGNA2018613,
abstract = {What is the role of structural estimation in behavioral economics? I discuss advantages, and limitations, of the work in Structural Behavioral Economics. I also cover common modeling choices and how to get started. Among the advantages, I argue that structural estimation builds on, and expands, a classical behavioral tool, simple calibrations, and that it benefits from the presence of a few parsimonious behavioral models which can be taken to the data. Estimation is also well suited for experimental work, common in behavioral economics, as it can lead to improvements in the experimental design. In addition, at a time where policy implications of behavioral work are increasingly discussed, it is important to ground these policy implications in (estimated) models. Structural work, however, has important limitations, which are relevant to its behavioral applications. Estimation takes much longer and the extra degree of complexity can make it difficult to know which of a series of assumptions is driving the results. For related reasons, it is also easy to over-reach with the welfare implications. Taking this into account, I provide a partial how-to guide to structural behavioral economics, covering: (i) the choice of estimation method; (ii) the modeling of heterogeneity; (iii) identification and sensitivity. Finally, I discuss common issues for the estimation of leading behavioral models. I illustrate this discussion with selected coverage of existing work in the literature.},
author = {Stefano DellaVigna},
booktitle = {Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 1},
date-added = {2022-06-10 14:30:11 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 14:30:21 -0400},
editor = {B. Douglas Bernheim and Stefano DellaVigna and David Laibson},
pages = {613-723},
publisher = {North-Holland},
series = {Handbook of Behavioral Economics: Applications and Foundations 1},
title = {Chapter 7 - Structural Behavioral Economics✶✶I thank Hunt Allcott, Charles Bellemare, Daniel Benjamin, Douglas Bernheim, Colin Camerer, Vincent Crawford, Thomas Dohmen, Philipp Eisenhauer, Keith Ericson, Lorenz Goette, Johannes Hermle, Lukas Kiessling, Nicola Lacetera, David Laibson, John List, Edward O'Donoghue, Gautam Rao, Alex Rees-Jones, John Rust, Jesse Shapiro, Charles Sprenger, Dmitry Taubinsky, Bertil Tungodden, Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, George Wu, and the audience of presentations at the 2016 Behavioral Summer Camp, at the SITE 2016 conference, and at the University of Bonn for their comments and suggestions. I thank Bryan Chu, Avner Shlain, Alex Steiny, and Vasco Villas-Boas for outstanding research assistance.},
volume = {1},
year = {2018},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S235223991830006X},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.hesbe.2018.07.005}}
@article{green2022using,
author = {Green, Jon and Druckman, James N. and Baum, Matthew A. and Lazer, David and Ognyanova, Katherine and Simonson, Matthew and Lin, Jennifer and Santillana, Mauricio and Perlis, Roy H.},
date-added = {2022-06-10 13:09:38 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 20:37:15 -0400},
journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
note = {Forthcoming},
title = {Using general messages to persuade on a politicized scientific issue},
year = {2022}}
@article{Bauer2021,
author = {Paul C. Bauer and Bernhard Clemm von Hohenberg},
date-added = {2022-06-10 13:01:37 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 13:01:48 -0400},
journal = {Political Communication},
number = {6},
pages = {647-671},
title = {Believing and Sharing Information by Fake Sources: An Experiment},
volume = {38},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2020.1840462}}
@article{frederiksen_2022,
author = {Frederiksen, Kristian Vrede Skaaning},
date-added = {2022-06-09 15:48:27 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 20:34:46 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
note = {Forthcoming},
pages = {1--7},
title = {Does Competence Make Citizens Tolerate Undemocratic Behavior?},
year = {2022},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055422000119}}
@article{Dunning2019,
abstract = {A preregistered meta-analysis of six field experiments finds no evidence overall that information campaigns shape voter behavior. Voters may be unable to hold politicians to account if they lack basic information about their representatives' performance. Civil society groups and international donors therefore advocate using voter information campaigns to improve democratic accountability. Yet, are these campaigns effective? Limited replication, measurement heterogeneity, and publication biases may undermine the reliability of published research. We implemented a new approach to cumulative learning, coordinating the design of seven randomized controlled trials to be fielded in six countries by independent research teams. Uncommon for multisite trials in the social sciences, we jointly preregistered a meta-analysis of results in advance of seeing the data. We find no evidence overall that typical, nonpartisan voter information campaigns shape voter behavior, although exploratory and subgroup analyses suggest conditions under which informational campaigns could be more effective. Such null estimated effects are too seldom published, yet they can be critical for scientific progress and cumulative, policy-relevant learning.},
author = {Thad Dunning and Guy Grossman and Macartan Humphreys and Susan D. Hyde and Craig McIntosh and Gareth Nellis and Claire L. Adida and Eric Arias and Clara Bicalho and Taylor C. Boas and Mark T. Buntaine and Simon Chauchard and Anirvan Chowdhury and Jessica Gottlieb and F. Daniel Hidalgo and Marcus Holmlund and Ryan Jablonski and Eric Kramon and Horacio Larreguy and Malte Lierl and John Marshall and Gwyneth McClendon and Marcus A. Melo and Daniel L. Nielson and Paula M. Pickering and Melina R. Platas and Pablo Querub{\'\i}n and Pia Raffler and Neelanjan Sircar},
date-added = {2022-06-09 15:43:53 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 20:12:21 -0400},
journal = {Science Advances},
number = {7},
pages = {1-10},
title = {Voter information campaigns and political accountability: Cumulative findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials},
volume = {5},
year = {2019},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612}}
@article{schwarz_coppock_2020,
author = {Schwarz, Susanne and Alexander Coppock},
date-added = {2022-06-09 14:44:46 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 22:18:23 -0400},
journal = {Journal of Politics},
note = {Forthcoming},
number = {2},
pages = {655-668},
title = {{What Have We Learned About Gender From Candidate Choice Experiments? A Meta-analysis of 67 Factorial Survey Experiments}},
volume = {84},
year = {2022}}
@article{blair_christensen_rudkin_2021,
author = {Blair, Graeme and Christensen, Darin and Rudkin, Aaron},
date-added = {2022-06-09 14:41:45 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 19:47:35 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {2},
pages = {709--716},
title = {Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflict? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments},
volume = {115},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420000957}}
@book{borenstein2021introduction,
author = {Borenstein, Michael and Hedges, Larry V and Higgins, Julian PT and Rothstein, Hannah R},
date-added = {2022-06-09 13:48:14 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-09 13:48:14 -0400},
publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
title = {Introduction to meta-analysis},
year = {2021}}
@article{Pettigrew:2006th,
abstract = {The present article presents a meta-analytic test of intergroup contact theory. With 713 independent samples from 515 studies, the meta-analysis finds that intergroup contact typically reduces intergroup prejudice. Multiple tests indicate that this finding appears not to result from either participant selection or publication biases, and the more rigorous studies yield larger mean effects. These contact effects typically generalize to the entire outgroup, and they emerge across a broad range of outgroup targets and contact settings. Similar patterns also emerge for samples with racial or ethnic targets and samples with other targets. This result suggests that contact theory, devised originally for racial and ethnic encounters, can be extended to other groups. A global indicator of Allport's optimal contact conditions demonstrates that contact under these conditions typically leads to even greater reduction in prejudice. Closer examination demonstrates that these conditions are best conceptualized as an interrelated bundle rather than as independent factors. Further, the meta-analytic findings indicate that these conditions are not essential for prejudice reduction. Hence, future work should focus on negative factors that prevent intergroup contact from diminishing prejudice as well as the development of a more comprehensive theory of intergroup contact.},
author = {Pettigrew, Thomas F. and Tropp, Linda R.},
date-added = {2022-06-09 13:22:01 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-09 13:23:09 -0400},
journal = {Journal of Personality and Social Psychology},
month = {May},
number = {5},
pages = {751--783},
title = {A meta-analytic test of intergroup contact theory},
volume = {90},
year = {2006},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.90.5.751}}
@article{paluck_green_green_2019,
author = {Paluck, Elizabeth Levy and Green, Seth A. and Green, Donald P.},
date-added = {2022-06-09 13:15:49 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 22:08:15 -0400},
journal = {Behavioural Public Policy},
number = {2},
pages = {129--158},
title = {The contact hypothesis re-evaluated},
volume = {3},
year = {2019},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2018.25}}
@article{galos_coppock_2022,
author = {Galos, Diana and Alexander Coppock},
date-added = {2022-06-09 12:54:37 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-09 12:54:37 -0400},
journal = {Unpublished manuscript},
title = {What Have Employment Audits Taught Us About The Effects of Gender on Hiring? A Meta-Analyis},
year = {2022}}
@article{Kalla2018,
abstract = { Do public officials respond unequally to requests for career advice? Through a correspondence experiment with 8,189 officials, we examine whether (hypothetical) male and female students who express interest in political careers receive differential responses from public officials. We report three striking findings. First, emails sent by female students were more likely to receive a response than those sent by male students, especially when the official was male. Second, the responses that women received were as likely to be long, thoughtful, and contain an offer of help as those to men. Third, there were no partisan differences in responsiveness to male or female senders. Examining senders with Hispanic last names bolsters the results: Hispanic senders, especially men, were less likely to receive a quality response than non-Hispanic senders. Thus, politicians may condition responsiveness and helpfulness on the ethnicity of constituents, but women who are self-starters in search of advice receive equal treatment. },
author = {Kalla, Joshua and Rosenbluth, Frances and Teele, Dawn Langan},
date-added = {2022-06-08 18:53:53 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 18:54:03 -0400},
journal = {The Journal of Politics},
number = {1},
pages = {337-341},
title = {Are You My Mentor? A Field Experiment on Gender, Ethnicity, and Political Self-Starters},
volume = {80},
year = {2018},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1086/693984}}
@techreport{Egger2019,
abstract = {How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. We provided one-time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. The implied fiscal shock was over 15 percent of local GDP. We find large impacts on consumption and assets for recipients. Importantly, we document large positive spillovers on non-recipient households and firms, and minimal price inflation. We estimate a local transfer multiplier of 2.4. We interpret welfare implications through the lens of a simple household optimization framework.},
author = {Egger, Dennis and Haushofer, Johannes and Miguel, Edward and Niehaus, Paul and Walker, Michael W},
date-added = {2022-06-08 18:22:52 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 18:23:34 -0400},
institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
month = {December},
number = {26600},
title = {General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Kenya},
type = {Working Paper},
year = {2019},
bdsk-url-1 = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w26600},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.3386/w26600}}
@article{cheema_khan_liaqat_mohmand_2022,
author = {Cheema, Ali and Khan, Sarah and Liaqat, Asad and Mohmand, Shandana Khan},
date-added = {2022-06-08 18:09:48 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 19:58:22 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
note = {Forthcoming},
pages = {1--21},
title = {Canvassing the Gatekeepers: A Field Experiment to Increase Women Voters' Turnout in Pakistan},
year = {2022},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055422000375}}
@article{Pennycook:2021uk,
abstract = {In recent years, there has been a great deal of concern about the proliferation of false and misleading news on social media1--4. Academics and practitioners alike have asked why people share such misinformation, and sought solutions to reduce the sharing of misinformation5--7. Here, we attempt to address both of these questions. First, we find that the veracity of headlines has little effect on sharing intentions, despite having a large effect on judgments of accuracy. This dissociation suggests that sharing does not necessarily indicate belief. Nonetheless, most participants say it is important to share only accurate news. To shed light on this apparent contradiction, we carried out four survey experiments and a field experiment on Twitter; the results show that subtly shifting attention to accuracy increases the quality of news that people subsequently share. Together with additional computational analyses, these findings indicate that people often share misinformation because their attention is focused on factors other than accuracy---and therefore they fail to implement a strongly held preference for accurate sharing. Our results challenge the popular claim that people value partisanship over accuracy8,9, and provide evidence for scalable attention-based interventions that social media platforms could easily implement to counter misinformation online.},
author = {Pennycook, Gordon and Epstein, Ziv and Mosleh, Mohsen and Arechar, Antonio A. and Eckles, Dean and Rand, David G.},
date-added = {2022-06-08 17:55:38 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 17:55:47 -0400},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7855},
pages = {590--595},
title = {Shifting attention to accuracy can reduce misinformation online},
volume = {592},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03344-2}}
@article{gerber2011large,
author = {Gerber, Alan S. and Gimpel, James G. and Green, Donald P. and Shaw, Daron R.},
date-added = {2022-06-08 17:51:47 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 17:52:01 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {1},
pages = {135--150},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {How large and long-lasting are the persuasive effects of televised campaign ads? Results from a randomized field experiment},
volume = {105},
year = {2011}}
@article{blair_2022,
author = {Blair, Robert A. and Moscoso-Rojas, Manuel and Vargas Castillo, Andres and Weintraub, Michael},
date-added = {2022-06-08 17:09:40 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 19:51:19 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
note = {Forthcoming},
pages = {1--20},
title = {Preventing Rebel Resurgence after Civil War: A Field Experiment in Security and Justice Provision in Rural Colombia},
year = {2022},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055422000284}}
@article{scacco_warren_2018,
author = {Scacco, Alexandra and Warren, Shana S.},
date-added = {2022-06-08 17:02:12 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 17:02:36 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {3},
pages = {654--677},
title = {Can Social Contact Reduce Prejudice and Discrimination? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Nigeria},
volume = {112},
year = {2018},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055418000151}}
@article{barnes2018information,
author = {Barnes, Lucy and Feller, Avi and Haselswerdt, Jake and Porter, Ethan},
date-added = {2022-06-08 16:50:45 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 16:50:45 -0400},
journal = {The Journal of Politics},
number = {2},
pages = {701--706},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press Chicago, IL},
title = {Information, knowledge, and attitudes: An evaluation of the taxpayer receipt},
volume = {80},
year = {2018}}
@article{wilke2021does,
author = {Wilke, Anna M.},
date-added = {2022-06-08 16:11:17 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 16:11:27 -0400},
journal = {Unpublished Manuscript},
title = {How Does the State Replace the Community? Experimental Evidence on Crime Control from South Africa},
year = {2021}}
@article{karpowitz2017elect,
author = {Karpowitz, Christopher F. and Monson, J. Quin and Preece, Jessica Robinson},
date-added = {2022-06-08 15:47:16 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 15:47:27 -0400},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
number = {4},
pages = {927--943},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {How to elect more women: Gender and candidate success in a field experiment},
volume = {61},
year = {2017}}
@article{Swire2017,
abstract = { This study investigated the cognitive processing of true and false political information. Specifically, it examined the impact of source credibility on the assessment of veracity when information comes from a polarizing source (Experiment 1), and effectiveness of explanations when they come from one's own political party or an opposition party (Experiment 2). These experiments were conducted prior to the 2016 Presidential election. Participants rated their belief in factual and incorrect statements that President Trump made on the campaign trail; facts were subsequently affirmed and misinformation retracted. Participants then re-rated their belief immediately or after a delay. Experiment 1 found that (i) if information was attributed to Trump, Republican supporters of Trump believed it more than if it was presented without attribution, whereas the opposite was true for Democrats and (ii) although Trump supporters reduced their belief in misinformation items following a correction, they did not change their voting preferences. Experiment 2 revealed that the explanation's source had relatively little impact, and belief updating was more influenced by perceived credibility of the individual initially purporting the information. These findings suggest that people use political figures as a heuristic to guide evaluation of what is true or false, yet do not necessarily insist on veracity as a prerequisite for supporting political candidates. },
author = {Swire, Briony and Berinsky, Adam J. and Lewandowsky, Stephan and Ecker, Ullrich K. H.},
date-added = {2022-06-08 15:18:55 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 22:23:58 -0400},
journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
number = {3},
pages = {1--21},
title = {Processing political misinformation: comprehending the Trump phenomenon},
volume = {4},
year = {2017},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rsos.160802},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160802}}
@article{klar2019identities,
author = {Klar, Samara and Leeper, Thomas J},
date-added = {2022-06-08 15:16:17 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 15:16:17 -0400},
journal = {Experimental methods in survey research: Techniques that combine random sampling with random assignment},
pages = {419--433},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {Identities and intersectionality: a case for Purposive sampling in Survey-Experimental research},
year = {2019}}
@article{collins_2021,
author = {Collins, Jonathan E.},
date-added = {2022-06-08 14:42:11 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-08 14:42:27 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {3},
pages = {790--804},
title = {Does the Meeting Style Matter? The Effects of Exposure to Participatory and Deliberative School Board Meetings},
volume = {115},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421000320}}
@article{paluck_green_2009,
author = {Paluck, Elizabeth Levy and Green, Donald P.},
date-added = {2022-06-06 17:22:51 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 17:23:19 -0500},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {4},
pages = {622--644},
title = {Deference, Dissent, and Dispute Resolution: An Experimental Intervention Using Mass Media to Change Norms and Behavior in Rwanda},
volume = {103},
year = {2009},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990128}}
@article{zelizer_2019,
author = {Zelizer, Adam},
date-added = {2022-06-06 17:01:01 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 17:01:15 -0500},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {2},
pages = {340--352},
title = {Is Position-Taking Contagious? Evidence of Cue-Taking from Two Field Experiments in a State Legislature},
volume = {113},
year = {2019},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000078}}
@article{lyall_zhou_imai_2020,
author = {Lyall, Jason and Zhou, Yang-Yang and Imai, Kosuke},
date-added = {2022-06-06 16:56:33 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 17:00:55 -0500},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {1},
pages = {126--143},
title = {Can Economic Assistance Shape Combatant Support in Wartime? Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan},
volume = {114},
year = {2020},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000698}}
@article{balcells2022transitional,
author = {Balcells, Laia and Palanza, Valeria and Voytas, Elsa},
date-added = {2022-06-06 16:45:16 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 16:45:26 -0500},
journal = {The Journal of Politics},
number = {1},
title = {Do transitional justice museums persuade visitors? Evidence from a field experiment},
volume = {84},
year = {2022}}
@article{Peyton2019,
abstract = {Repeated instances of police violence against unarmed civilians have drawn worldwide attention to the contemporary crisis of police legitimacy. Community-oriented policing (COP), which encourages positive, nonenforcement contact between police officers and the public, has been widely promoted as a policy intervention for building public trust and enhancing police legitimacy. To date, however, there is little evidence that COP actually leads to changes in attitudes toward the police. We conducted a randomized trial with a large urban police department. We found that positive contact with police---delivered via brief door-to-door nonenforcement community policing visits---substantially improved residents' attitudes toward police, including legitimacy and willingness to cooperate. These effects remained large in a 21-d follow-up and were largest among nonwhite respondents. Despite decades of declining crime rates, longstanding tensions between police and the public continue to frustrate the formation of cooperative relationships necessary for the function of the police and the provision of public safety. In response, policy makers continue to promote community-oriented policing (COP) and its emphasis on positive, nonenforcement contact with the public as an effective strategy for enhancing public trust and police legitimacy. Prior research designs, however, have not leveraged the random assignment of police--public contact to identify the causal effect of such interactions on individual-level attitudes toward the police. Therefore, the question remains: Do positive, nonenforcement interactions with uniformed patrol officers actually cause meaningful improvements in attitudes toward the police? Here, we report on a randomized field experiment conducted in New Haven, CT, that sheds light on this question and identifies the individual-level consequences of positive, nonenforcement contact between police and the public. Findings indicate that a single instance of positive contact with a uniformed police officer can substantially improve public attitudes toward police, including legitimacy and willingness to cooperate. These effects persisted for up to 21 d and were not limited to individuals inclined to trust and cooperate with the police prior to the intervention. This study demonstrates that positive nonenforcement contact can improve public attitudes toward police and suggests that police departments would benefit from an increased focus on strategies that promote positive police--public interactions.},
author = {Kyle Peyton and Michael Sierra-Ar{\'e}valo and David G. Rand},
date-added = {2022-06-06 16:39:38 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 16:39:48 -0500},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
number = {40},
pages = {19894-19898},
title = {A field experiment on community policing and police legitimacy},
volume = {116},
year = {2019},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1910157116},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910157116}}
@article{Iyengar2015,
abstract = {When defined in terms of social identity and affect toward copartisans and opposing partisans, the polarization of the American electorate has dramatically increased. We document the scope and consequences of affective polarization of partisans using implicit, explicit, and behavioral indicators. Our evidence demonstrates that hostile feelings for the opposing party are ingrained or automatic in voters' minds, and that affective polarization based on party is just as strong as polarization based on race. We further show that party cues exert powerful effects on nonpolitical judgments and behaviors. Partisans discriminate against opposing partisans, doing so to a degree that exceeds discrimination based on race. We note that the willingness of partisans to display open animus for opposing partisans can be attributed to the absence of norms governing the expression of negative sentiment and that increased partisan affect provides an incentive for elites to engage in confrontation rather than cooperation.},
author = {Iyengar, Shanto and Westwood, Sean J.},
date-added = {2022-06-06 16:07:13 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 16:07:28 -0500},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
number = {3},
pages = {690-707},
title = {Fear and Loathing across Party Lines: New Evidence on Group Polarization},
volume = {59},
year = {2015},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12152},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12152}}
@article{avdeenko_gilligan_2015,
author = {Avdeenko, Alexandra and Gilligan, Michael J.},
date-added = {2022-06-06 16:04:11 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 16:04:40 -0500},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {3},
pages = {427--449},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {International Interventions to Build Social Capital: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Sudan},
volume = {109},
year = {2015},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055415000210}}
@article{Kao2022,
abstract = {Abstract Armed groups seeking to govern territory require the cooperation of many civilians, who are widely perceived as enemy collaborators after conflict ends. The empirical literature on attitudes toward transitional justice focuses heavily on fighters, overlooking more nuanced understandings of proportional justice for civilian collaborators. Through a survey experiment conducted in an Iraqi city that was controlled by the Islamic State, we find that variations in the type of collaboration an actor engages in strongly determine preferences for punishment and forgiveness. While exposure to violence is associated with a greater desire for revenge, perceived volition behind an act---a relatively unstudied factor---is much more important. This research provides unique empirical data on the microfoundations of enemy collaborator culpability. By widening our analytical lens to consider a more realistically broad spectrum of enemy collaboration, we avoid affirming a false dichotomy between victims and perpetrators that is commonly adopted in postwar settings.},
author = {Kao, Kristen and Revkin, Mara R.},
date-added = {2022-06-06 15:18:01 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 15:18:22 -0500},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
note = {Forthcoming},
title = {Retribution or Reconciliation? Post-Conflict Attitudes toward Enemy Collaborators},
year = {2022},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12673},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12673}}
@article{Cruz2019,
abstract = { The social networks of voters have been shown to facilitate political cooperation and information transmission in established democracies. These same social networks, however, can also make it easier for politicians in new democracies to engage in clientelistic electoral strategies. Using survey data from the Philippines, this article demonstrates that individuals with more friend and family ties are disproportionately targeted for vote buying. This is consistent with the importance of other social factors identified in the literature such as reciprocity, direct ties to politicians, and individual social influence. In addition, this article presents evidence supporting an additional mechanism linking voter social networks to the targeting of vote buying: social network--based monitoring. Voters with larger networks are both more sensitive to the ramifications of reneging on vote buying agreements and are primarily targeted for vote buying in contexts where monitoring is necessary. },
author = {Cesi Cruz},
date-added = {2022-06-06 14:07:58 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 14:08:12 -0500},
journal = {Comparative Political Studies},
number = {3},
pages = {382-411},
title = {Social Networks and the Targeting of Vote Buying},
volume = {52},
year = {2019},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018784062}}
@article{birkelund2022gender,
author = {Birkelund, Gunn Elisabeth and Lancee, Bram and Larsen, Edvard Nerg{\aa}rd and Polavieja, Javier G and Radl, Jonas and Yemane, Ruta},
date-added = {2022-06-06 13:13:17 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-06 13:13:17 -0500},
journal = {European Sociological Review},
number = {3},
pages = {337--354},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {Gender Discrimination in Hiring: Evidence from a Cross-National Harmonized Field Experiment},
volume = {38},
year = {2022}}
@article{Kirkland2021,
abstract = { When business owners and executives run for elected office, they claim their experience in business leaves them uniquely equipped to govern. Does electing a business owner or executive have an effect on public policy? With original data, including race, gender, political experience, and occupational backgrounds of 3,257 mayoral candidates from 263 cities, I document a striking lack of diversity in US mayoral politics and show that business owners and executives are extraordinarily well represented in American city halls. Nearly 32\% of mayors have experience as a business owner or executive, making it the most common occupation across both time and geographic region. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that business executive mayors do shape municipal fiscal policy by shifting the allocation of expenditures, investing in infrastructure while curtailing redistributive spending. Notably, my results suggest that business executive is not simply a proxy for Republican partisanship. },
author = {Kirkland, Patricia A.},
date-added = {2022-06-05 13:21:27 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 13:21:38 -0500},
journal = {The Journal of Politics},
number = {4},
pages = {1652-1668},
title = {Business Owners and Executives as Politicians: The Effect on Public Policy},
volume = {83},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1086/715067}}
@article{thistlethwaite1960regression,
author = {Thistlethwaite, Donald L. and Campbell, Donald T.},
date-added = {2022-06-05 13:04:32 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 13:04:39 -0500},
journal = {Journal of Educational psychology},
number = {6},
pages = {309},
publisher = {American Psychological Association},
title = {Regression-discontinuity analysis: An alternative to the ex post facto experiment.},
volume = {51},
year = {1960}}
@article{Stokes2016,
abstract = {Abstract Retrospective voting studies typically examine policies where the public has common interests. By contrast, climate policy has broad public support but concentrated opposition in communities where costs are imposed. This spatial distribution of weak supporters and strong local opponents mirrors opposition to other policies with diffuse public benefits and concentrated local costs. I use a natural experiment to investigate whether citizens living in proximity to wind energy projects retrospectively punished an incumbent government because of its climate policy. Using both fixed effects and instrumental variable estimators, I identify electoral losses for the incumbent party ranging from 4 to 10\%, with the effect persisting 3 km from wind turbines. There is also evidence that voters are informed, only punishing the government responsible for the policy. I conclude that the spatial distribution of citizens' policy preferences can affect democratic accountability through `spatially distorted signalling', which can exacerbate political barriers to addressing climate change.},
author = {Stokes, Leah C.},
date-added = {2022-06-05 13:00:45 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 13:00:56 -0500},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
number = {4},
pages = {958-974},
title = {Electoral Backlash against Climate Policy: A Natural Experiment on Retrospective Voting and Local Resistance to Public Policy},
volume = {60},
year = {2016},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12220},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12220}}
@article{nellis_siddiqui_2018,
author = {Nellis, Gareth and Siddiqui, Niloufer},
date-added = {2022-06-05 12:54:58 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 12:55:35 -0500},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {1},
pages = {49--67},
title = {Secular Party Rule and Religious Violence in Pakistan},
volume = {112},
year = {2018},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055417000491}}
@article{coppock_green_2016,
author = {Coppock, Alexander and Green, Donald P.},
date-added = {2022-06-05 12:46:49 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 12:46:49 -0500},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
number = {4},
pages = {1044--1062},
title = {{Is Voting Habit Forming? New Evidence from Experiments and Regression Discontinuities}},
volume = {60},
year = {2016},
bdsk-url-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12210}}
@article{Carreri2017,
abstract = { Do natural resources impair institutional outcomes? Existing work studies how natural resources influence the behavior of leaders in power. We study how they influence leaders' rise to power. Our analysis focuses on oil price shocks and local democracy in Colombia, a country mired in civil conflict. We find that when the price of oil rises, legislators affiliated with right-wing paramilitary groups win office more in oil-producing municipalities. Consistent with the use of force to gain power, positive price shocks also induce an increase in paramilitary violence and reduce electoral competition: fewer candidates run for office, and winners are elected with a wider vote margin. Ultimately, fewer centrist legislators are elected to office, and there is diminished representation at the center. Our findings highlight how natural resources undermine democracy by distorting elections and suggest that conflict leaves the political sector vulnerable to the resource curse. },
author = {Carreri, Maria and Dube, Oeindrila},
date-added = {2022-06-05 11:58:31 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 11:58:45 -0500},
journal = {The Journal of Politics},
number = {2},
pages = {502-518},
title = {Do Natural Resources Influence Who Comes to Power, and How?},
volume = {79},
year = {2017},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1086/688443}}
@article{paglayan2019public,
author = {Paglayan, Agustina S.},
date-added = {2022-06-05 11:54:57 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 11:55:04 -0500},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
number = {1},
pages = {21--36},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {Public-Sector Unions and the Size of Government},
volume = {63},
year = {2019}}
@article{Prillaman2022,
abstract = {Abstract In India, there persists a striking gender gap in political participation. Women's political participation is important both on normative grounds of inclusion and because when women participate, politics changes. I develop a theoretical model of women's political behavior, arguing that women's lack of political participation is the result of the structure of women's political networks in patriarchal societies. I then evaluate the effect of expanding women's networks by leveraging a natural experiment that created as-if random variation in access to women-only credit groups. Participation in these groups had a significant and substantial impact on women's political participation---women's attendance at public meetings doubled. I provide suggestive evidence of three mechanisms underlying this effect: (1) larger networks, (2) increased capacity for collective action within networks, and (3) development of civic skills. These findings contribute to our understanding of how networks affect political behavior and underlie gendered inequalities in political participation.},
author = {Prillaman, Soledad Artiz},
date-added = {2022-06-05 11:43:51 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 11:44:25 -0500},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
note = {Forthcoming},
title = {Strength in Numbers: How Women's Groups Close India's Political Gender Gap},
year = {2022},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12651},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12651}}
@article{bateson_2012,
author = {Bateson, Regina},
date-added = {2022-06-05 11:35:13 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 11:35:28 -0500},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {3},
pages = {570--587},
title = {Crime Victimization and Political Participation},
volume = {106},
year = {2012},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000299}}
@article{snyder_borghard_2011,
author = {Snyder, Jack and Borghard, Erica D.},
date-added = {2022-06-05 11:14:33 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 22:22:54 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {3},
pages = {437--456},
title = {The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny, Not a Pound},
volume = {105},
year = {2011},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S000305541100027X}}
@article{REVKIN2020104981,
abstract = {This article considers the concept of the rebel social contract by examining the case of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. The concept of the social contract is a cornerstone of political theory and is increasingly invoked in discussions of civil war and authoritarian regimes, when prospective rulers offer political protections and social benefits in return for the allegiance of citizens. The social contract is often assumed to exist, but is rarely evaluated empirically. It remains difficult to distinguish between political stability derived from consent and stability derived from coercion and domination given their observational equivalence. Civil wars, in which rebel groups seek to supplant the state, provide opportunities to observe the construction and negotiation of new social contracts. The article uses Hirschman's exit/voice/loyalty typology to develop a qualitative empirical method for evaluating evidence of the rebels' ``offer'' of a social contract to civilians and their acceptance or rejection of that offer. We demonstrate this method by applying it to the case of IS using evidence including official IS documents, social media posts from within IS-controlled territory, and interviews with individuals who have personally experienced IS governance. We conclude that while IS leadership wanted to gain voluntary assent, most of the civilian response to IS rule suggested domination and authoritarian forms of social-contract building. This finding is illustrative of the analytical and methodological challenges involved in studying the social contract in rebel governance and the importance of considering domination, not just reciprocity, as the foundation for political order.},
author = {Mara Redlich Revkin and Ariel I. Ahram},
date-added = {2022-06-05 11:07:35 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-05 11:07:48 -0500},
journal = {World Development},
pages = {104981},
title = {Perspectives on the rebel social contract: Exit, voice, and loyalty in the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria},
volume = {132},
year = {2020},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X20301078},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104981}}
@article{broockman2016durably,
author = {Broockman, David and Kalla, Joshua},
date-added = {2022-06-03 14:16:26 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-03 14:16:26 -0500},
journal = {Science},
number = {6282},
pages = {220--224},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {Durably reducing transphobia: A field experiment on door-to-door canvassing},
volume = {352},
year = {2016}}
@article{Jefferson2022,
author = {Jefferson, Hakeem},
date-added = {2022-06-03 14:10:20 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-03 14:11:17 -0500},
journal = {Unpublished Manuscript},
title = {Respectability and the Politics of Punishment among Black Americans},
year = {2022}}
@article{bisbee_2019,
author = {Bisbee, James},
date-added = {2022-06-03 13:28:10 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 19:47:11 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {4},
pages = {1060--1065},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {BARP: Improving Mister P Using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees},
volume = {113},
year = {2019},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000480}}
@article{Tausanovitch:2013wp,
abstract = {Little is known about the American public?s policy preferences at the level of Congressional districts, state legislative districts, and local municipalities. In this article, we overcome the limited sample sizes that have hindered previous research by jointly scaling the policy preferences of 275,000 Americans based on their responses to policy questions. We combine this large dataset of Americans? policy preferences with recent advances in opinion estimation to estimate the preferences of every state, congressional district, state legislative district, and large city. We show that our estimates outperform previous measures of citizens? policy preferences. These new estimates enable scholars to examine representation at a variety of geographic levels. We demonstrate the utility of these estimates through applications of our measures to examine representation in state legislatures and city governments.},
annote = {doi: 10.1017/S0022381613000042},
author = {Tausanovitch, Chris and Warshaw, Christopher},
date-added = {2022-06-03 13:19:53 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-03 13:20:14 -0500},
journal = {The Journal of Politics},
month = {2022/06/03},
number = {2},
pages = {330--342},
title = {Measuring Constituent Policy Preferences in Congress, State Legislatures, and Cities},
volume = {75},
year = {2013},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381613000042}}
@article{lax2009gay,
author = {Lax, Jeffrey R. and Phillips, Justin H.},
date-added = {2022-06-03 13:13:49 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-03 13:13:59 -0500},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {3},
pages = {367--386},
title = {Gay rights in the states: Public opinion and policy responsiveness},
volume = {103},
year = {2009}}
@article{Paler2018,
abstract = { While it is widely appreciated that public political action can be socially costly, there is little evidence of the effects of social pressure on petition signing despite its importance as a mode of political participation. We examine the social costs of petition signing in the context of mass mobilization to reform the sectarian political system in Lebanon. We invited a representative sample of 2,496 adults to sign a petition calling for an end to sectarian politics, randomly assigning respondents to a public condition where they had to provide their names or a private condition where they did not. Our results show that public signing reduced willingness to participate by 20 percentage points despite substantial private support for reform and that this reduction was significantly greater for those more afraid of social sanctioning. This is strong evidence that social pressure can deter individuals from publicly expressing their private political preferences. },
author = {Paler, Laura and Marshall, Leslie and Atallah, Sami},
date-added = {2022-06-03 13:05:41 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-03 13:05:57 -0500},
journal = {The Journal of Politics},
number = {4},
pages = {1405-1410},
title = {The Social Costs of Public Political Participation: Evidence from a Petition Experiment in Lebanon},
volume = {80},
year = {2018},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1086/698714}}
@article{stokes_2005,
author = {Stokes, Susan C.},
date-added = {2022-06-03 12:49:04 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-03 12:49:23 -0500},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
number = {3},
pages = {315--325},
title = {Perverse Accountability: A Formal Model of Machine Politics with Evidence from Argentina},
volume = {99},
year = {2005},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055405051683}}
@article{merkley_stecula_2021,
author = {Merkley, Eric and Stecula, Dominik A.},
date-added = {2022-06-03 12:24:41 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-03 12:24:50 -0500},
journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
number = {4},
pages = {1439--1456},
title = {Party Cues in the News: Democratic Elites, Republican Backlash, and the Dynamics of Climate Skepticism},
volume = {51},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000113}}
@article{Bradley:2021us,
abstract = {Surveys are a crucial tool for understanding public opinion and behaviour, and their accuracy depends on maintaining statistical representativeness of their target populations by minimizing biases from all sources. Increasing data size shrinks confidence intervals but magnifies the effect of survey bias: an instance of the Big Data Paradox1. Here we demonstrate this paradox in estimates of first-dose COVID-19 vaccine uptake in US adults from 9 January to 19 May 2021 from two large surveys: Delphi--Facebook2,3 (about 250,000 responses per week) and Census Household Pulse4 (about 75,000 every two weeks). In May 2021, Delphi--Facebook overestimated uptake by 17 percentage points (14--20 percentage points with 5{\%} benchmark imprecision) and Census Household Pulse by 14 (11--17 percentage points with 5{\%} benchmark imprecision), compared to a retroactively updated benchmark the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published on 26 May 2021. Moreover, their large sample sizes led to miniscule margins of error on the incorrect estimates. By contrast, an Axios--Ipsos online panel5 with about 1,000 responses per week following survey research best practices6 provided reliable estimates and uncertainty quantification. We decompose observed error using a recent analytic framework1 to explain the inaccuracy in the three surveys. We then analyse the implications for vaccine hesitancy and willingness. We show how a survey of 250,000 respondents can produce an estimate of the population mean that is no more accurate than an estimate from a simple random sample of size 10. Our central message is that data quality matters more than data quantity, and that compensating the former with the latter is a mathematically provable losing proposition.},
author = {Bradley, Valerie C. and Kuriwaki, Shiro and Isakov, Michael and Sejdinovic, Dino and Meng, Xiao-Li and Flaxman, Seth},
date-added = {2022-06-03 12:04:43 -0500},
date-modified = {2022-06-03 12:04:58 -0500},
journal = {Nature},
number = {7890},
pages = {695--700},
title = {Unrepresentative big surveys significantly overestimated US vaccine uptake},
volume = {600},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04198-4}}
@article{chopra2022null,
author = {Chopra, Felix and Haaland, Ingar and Roth, Christopher and Stegmann, Andreas},
date-added = {2022-06-02 18:35:49 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-02 18:35:59 -0400},
journal = {Unpublished Manuscript},
title = {The Null Result Penalty},
year = {2022}}
@article{calonico2014robust,
author = {Calonico, Sebastian and Cattaneo, Matias D and Titiunik, Rocio},
date-added = {2021-06-08 15:23:38 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-06-08 15:23:38 -0400},
journal = {Econometrica},
number = {6},
pages = {2295--2326},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {Robust nonparametric confidence intervals for regression-discontinuity designs},
volume = {82},
year = {2014}}
@article{wilke2020placebo,
author = {Wilke, Anna M. and Green, Donald P. and Cooper, Jasper},
date-added = {2021-06-08 11:41:38 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-06-08 11:41:38 -0400},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)},
number = {3},
pages = {1075--1096},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
title = {A placebo design to detect spillovers from an education--entertainment experiment in Uganda},
volume = {183},
year = {2020}}
@book{schrag2010ethical,
author = {Schrag, Zachary M.},
date-added = {2021-06-08 10:52:46 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-06-08 10:53:06 -0400},
publisher = {Johns Hopkins University Press},
title = {Ethical imperialism: Institutional review boards and the social sciences, 1965--2009},
year = {2010}}
@article{egami2021elements,
author = {Egami, Naoki and Hartman, Erin},
date-added = {2021-06-08 10:02:23 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 20:15:32 -0400},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
note = {Forthcoming},
title = {Elements of External Validity: Framework, Design, and Analysis},
year = {2022}}
@article{porter2021,
author = {Porter, Ethan and Yamil Velez},
date-added = {2021-06-07 21:58:04 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 22:16:10 -0400},
journal = {Political Analysis},
note = {Forthcoming},
pages = {1--14},
title = {Placebo Selection In Survey Experiments: An Agnostic Approach},
year = {2021}}
@article{fisher1935logic,
author = {Fisher, Ronald A},
journal = {Journal of the royal statistical society},
number = {1},
pages = {39--82},
publisher = {JSTOR},
title = {The logic of inductive inference},
volume = {98},
year = {1935}}
@article{mellon_2021,
author = {Mellon, Jonathan},
date-added = {2021-06-06 19:11:18 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 20:48:32 -0400},
journal = {Unpublished Manuscript},
title = {Rain, Rain, Go Away: 176 potential exclusion-restriction violations for studies using weather as an instrumental variable},
year = {2021},
bdsk-url-1 = {osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/9qj4f},
bdsk-url-2 = {https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/9qj4f}}
@article{coppock_kaur_2021,
author = {Coppock, Alexander and Dipin Kaur},
date-added = {2021-06-06 13:28:10 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 20:06:02 -0400},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
note = {Forthcoming},
title = {{Qualitative Imputation of Missing Potential Outcomes}},
year = 2022}
@article{angrist1996,
author = {Angrist, Joshua D. and Guido W. Imbens and Donald B. Rubin},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
number = {434},
pages = {444-455},
title = {Identification of causal effects using instrumental variables},
volume = {91},
year = {1996}}
@article{aronow2019note,
author = {Aronow, Peter M. and Baron, Jonathon and Pinson, Lauren},
date-added = {2021-06-03 11:45:51 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-06-03 11:45:51 -0400},
journal = {Political Analysis},
number = {4},
pages = {572--589},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {A note on dropping experimental subjects who fail a manipulation check},
volume = {27},
year = {2019}}
@article{samii2012equivalencies,
author = {Samii, Cyrus and Aronow, Peter M.},
date-added = {2021-06-02 18:19:45 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-06-02 18:19:51 -0400},
journal = {Statistics \& Probability Letters},
number = {2},
pages = {365--370},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {On equivalencies between design-based and regression-based variance estimators for randomized experiments},
volume = {82},
year = {2012}}
@article{montgomery2020so,
author = {Montgomery, Jacob M. and Rossiter, Erin L.},
date-added = {2021-06-02 15:00:28 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-06-02 15:00:36 -0400},
journal = {Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology},
number = {4},
pages = {667--690},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
title = {So many questions, so little time: Integrating adaptive inventories into public opinion research},
volume = {8},
year = {2020}}
@article{offer-westort_coppock_green_2021,
author = {Offer-Westort, Molly and Alexander Coppock and Donald P. Green},
date-added = {2021-06-02 14:36:45 -0400},
date-modified = {2022-06-10 22:06:06 -0400},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
pages = {826--844},
title = {{Adaptive Experimental Design: Prospects and Applications in Political Science}},
volume = {65},
year = 2021}
@article{wager2018estimation,
author = {Wager, Stefan and Athey, Susan},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
number = {523},
pages = {1228--1242},
publisher = {Taylor \& Francis},
title = {Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests},
volume = {113},
year = {2018}}
@article{clingingsmith2009estimating,
author = {Clingingsmith, David and Khwaja, Asim Ijaz and Kremer, Michael},
date-added = {2021-06-01 22:32:23 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-06-01 22:32:23 -0400},
journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
number = {3},
pages = {1133--1170},
publisher = {MIT Press},
title = {Estimating the impact of the Hajj: religion and tolerance in Islam's global gathering},
volume = {124},
year = {2009}}
@book{gelman2020regression,
author = {Gelman, Andrew and Hill, Jennifer and Vehtari, Aki},
date-added = {2021-05-31 08:53:49 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-05-31 08:53:49 -0400},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
title = {Regression and other stories},
year = {2020}}
@article{Benjamin:2018vj,
abstract = {We propose to change the default P-value threshold for statistical significance from 0.05 to 0.005 for claims of new discoveries.},
author = {Benjamin, Daniel J. and Berger, James O. and Johannesson, Magnus and Nosek, Brian A. and Wagenmakers, E. -J. and Berk, Richard and Bollen, Kenneth A. and Brembs, Bj{\"o}rn and Brown, Lawrence and Camerer, Colin and Cesarini, David and Chambers, Christopher D. and Clyde, Merlise and Cook, Thomas D. and De Boeck, Paul and Dienes, Zoltan and Dreber, Anna and Easwaran, Kenny and Efferson, Charles and Fehr, Ernst and Fidler, Fiona and Field, Andy P. and Forster, Malcolm and George, Edward I. and Gonzalez, Richard and Goodman, Steven and Green, Edwin and Green, Donald P. and Greenwald, Anthony G. and Hadfield, Jarrod D. and Hedges, Larry V. and Held, Leonhard and Hua Ho, Teck and Hoijtink, Herbert and Hruschka, Daniel J. and Imai, Kosuke and Imbens, Guido W. and Ioannidis, John P. A. and Jeon, Minjeong and Jones, James Holland and Kirchler, Michael and Laibson, David and List, John and Little, Roderick and Lupia, Arthur and Machery, Edouard and Maxwell, Scott E. and McCarthy, Michael and Moore, Don A. and Morgan, Stephen L. and Munaf{\'o}, Marcus and Nakagawa, Shinichi and Nyhan, Brendan and Parker, Timothy H. and Pericchi, Luis and Perugini, Marco and Rouder, Jeff and Rousseau, Judith and Savalei, Victoria and Sch{\"o}nbrodt, Felix D. and Sellke, Thomas and Sinclair, Betsy and Tingley, Dustin and Van Zandt, Trisha and Vazire, Simine and Watts, Duncan J. and Winship, Christopher and Wolpert, Robert L. and Xie, Yu and Young, Cristobal and Zinman, Jonathan and Johnson, Valen E.},
date-added = {2021-05-24 10:56:02 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-05-24 10:56:15 -0400},
journal = {Nature Human Behaviour},
number = {1},
pages = {6--10},
title = {Redefine statistical significance},
volume = {2},
year = {2018},
bdsk-url-1 = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-017-0189-z}}
@article{druckman2011students,
author = {Druckman, James N and Kam, Cindy D},
date-added = {2021-05-21 15:31:27 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-05-21 15:31:27 -0400},
journal = {Cambridge handbook of experimental political science},
pages = {41--57},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press New York},
title = {Students as experimental participants},
volume = {1},
year = {2011}}
@article{kirkland_coppock_2018,
author = {Kirkland, Patricia A. and Alexander Coppock},
date-added = {2021-05-20 15:17:59 -0400},
date-modified = {2021-05-20 15:17:59 -0400},
journal = {Political Behavior},
number = {3},
pages = {571--591},
title = {{Candidate Choice Without Party Labels: New Insights from Conjoint Survey Experiments}},
volume = {40},
year = {2018}}
@article{graham2021attitudes,
author = {Matthew Graham and Alexander Coppock},
journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
title = {Asking About Attitude Change},
year = {Forthcoming}}