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witan.cic

Modelling children in care demand and cost

Usage

Refer to the template config file at data/demo/config.edn. The config file specifies file inputs, output parameters and projection parameters.

There are eight standard input files, which are created by generating candidates and rejection sampling. Rejection sampling generates a variety of input period candidates together with their rejection sampling probabilities (rejection sampling is used to ensure that overall period durations are as historically observed).

The process is as follows:

  1. Execute clj -m cic.cic run-generate-candidates-workflow with a config to generate a period candidates file.
  2. Execute clj -m cic.cic run-rejection-sampling with a config to generate model input files from the candidates file.
  3. Execute clj -m cic.cic run-cic-workflow with a config to generate the projection. Depending on the config either or both of the episodes or summary csvs will be generated.

Alternatively:

  1. Execute clj -m cic.main -main optionally passing --config FILE to use custom config.

Dictionary

  • Total time in care - the total length of time in care
  • Period - the length of contiguous time in care
  • Phase - the length of time in a placement type
  • Episode - the length of time spent in the same placement/placement provider/legal status/CIN
  • CIN - acronym for 'child in need', however corresponds to category of need, being the main reason a child is being provided with care services.

Provenance tags

The episodes output contains a provenance field which contains a single character representing the source of the period.

  • H: Historic - historic joiners who leave before the projection start date
  • O: Open - historic joiners who have not left by the projection start date
  • P: Projected closed - Open periods the model closes
  • C: Candidate - potential simulated joiners whose placements and age of entry is known but who do not have a start date
  • S: Simulated - joiners the model creates by assigning a start date

The provenance is the same for all episodes in a period.