For a full presentation of the project and explaination of the code, you can directly jump into our video.
How to see the notebook:
- Get Mathematica by WolframAlpha
- Download the file OneTrillionTrees.nb
- Open the notebook with Mathematica and allow dynamics cells
- Running the notebook is not required.
This project on Climate Sustainability addresses a very pertinent question inspired by Dr Mesnage's and Professor Vlachos' research paper: Is a Trillion Trees Enough? In practice, we sought to assess whether planting trees in desert areas could have a significant impact in reducing global average temperature (GAT) by sequestering CO2 emissions from the atmosphere. As the climate emergency is exacerbating, this could be incremental in designing climate mitigation strategies that align with Paris targets. We achieved this by using WL to build climate models and experiment with different parameters such as albedo change to evaluate possible outcomes. Interactive tools for understanding the effect of planting the trees are also available thanks to Mathematica language.
Key Take Aways:
- This project provides some evidence that planting trees could be a potential strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels.
- With a continuous increase of CO2 emissions, it will not be possible to achieve the climate goals set by the Paris agreement.
- More research into this topic may be required to reach more conclusive results on the long-term effects of planting trees.
Some research suggests that although reforestation, through photosynthesis, could offset current CO2 emissions and draw out those lingering for decades in the atmosphere, it only works if forests are preserved (source). Due to wildfires, land clearing and plantation degradation, which have exacerbated dramatically over the past decades, forests may flip from serving as carbon sponges to acting as carbon sources by 2050. Thus, planting a trillion trees might only be a "quick-fix", a first line of defence, and as 862 km2 of forested land are required to capture 1 million tons of CO2, it might not be the most practical solution to combat rising emissions. Our project shows that without a change in our behaviour and lifestyle the target of maximum temperature increase of 1.5°C is unrealistic and the subsequent consequences for life on Earth will be detrimental.