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add admonitions, unbold emphasis, and clean the citation style
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HumphreyYang committed Jul 1, 2024
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## Overview


This lecture builds on concepts and issues introduced in our lecture on **Money Supplies and Price Levels**.
This lecture builds on concepts and issues introduced in our lecture on {doc}`money supplies and price levels<money_inflation>`.

That lecture describes stationary equilibria that reveal a [*Laffer curve*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve) in the inflation tax rate and the associated stationary rate of return
on currency.
Expand All @@ -36,18 +36,20 @@ by printing money at times $t \geq T$.

These outcomes are the essential finding of Sargent and Wallace's **unpleasant monetarist arithmetic** {cite}`sargent1981`.

**Reader's Guide:** Please read our lecture on Money Supplies and Price levels before diving into this lecture.
```{tip}
Please read our lecture on {doc}`money supplies and price levels<money_inflation>` before diving into this lecture.
```

That lecture described supplies and demands for money that appear in lecture.

It also characterized the steady state equilibrium from which we work backwards in this lecture.

In addition to learning about ''unpleasant monetarist arithmetic", in this lecture we'll learn how to implement a **fixed point** algorithm for computing an initial price level.
In addition to learning about **unpleasant monetarist arithmetic**, in this lecture we'll learn how to implement a *fixed point* algorithm for computing an initial price level.


## Setup

Let's start with quick reminders of the model's components set out in our lecture on **Money Supplies and Price Levels**.
Let's start with quick reminders of the model's components set out in {doc}`money_inflation`.

Please consult that lecture for more details and Python code that we'll also use in this lecture.

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## Monetary-Fiscal Policy
To the basic model of our lecture on **Money Supplies and Price Levels**, we add inflation-indexed one-period government bonds as an additional way for the government to finance government expenditures.
To the basic model of {doc}`money_inflation`, we add inflation-indexed one-period government bonds as an additional way for the government to finance government expenditures.
Let $\widetilde R > 1$ be a time-invariant gross real rate of return on government one-period inflation-indexed bonds.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -114,11 +116,11 @@ $$ (eq:openmarketconstraint)
This equation says that the government (e.g., the central bank) can *decrease* $m_0$ relative to
$\check m_0$ by *increasing* $B_{-1}$ relative to $\check B_{-1}$.
This is a version of a standard constraint on a central bank's **open market operations** in which it expands the stock of money by buying government bonds from the public.
This is a version of a standard constraint on a central bank's [**open market operations**](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) in which it expands the stock of money by buying government bonds from the public.
## An open market operation at $t=0$
Following Sargent and Wallace (1981), we analyze consequences of a central bank policy that
Following {cite:t}`sargent1981`, we analyze consequences of a central bank policy that
uses an open market operation to lower the price level in the face of a persistent fiscal
deficit that takes the form of a positive $g$.
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p_T = \frac{m_0}{\gamma_1 - \overline g - \gamma_2 R_u^{-1}} = \gamma_1^{-1} m_0 \left\{\frac{1}{R_u-\lambda} \right\}
$$ (eq:pTformula)
**Remark:**
```{prf:remark}
We can verify the equivalence of the two formulas on the right sides of {eq}`eq:pTformula` by recalling that
$R_u$ is a root of the quadratic equation {eq}`eq:up_steadyquadratic` that determines steady state rates of return on currency.
```
## Algorithm (pseudo code)
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To compute an equilibrium, we deploy the following algorithm.
```{prf:algorithm}
Given *parameters* include $g, \check m_0, \check B_{-1}, \widetilde R >1, T $.
We define a mapping from $p_0$ to $\widehat p_0$ as follows.
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* Compute a new estimate of $p_0$, call it $\widehat p_0$, from equation {eq}`eq:allts` above
* Note that the preceding steps define a mapping
$$
Expand All @@ -298,7 +301,7 @@ p_{0,j+1} = (1-\theta) {\mathcal S}(p_{0,j}) + \theta p_{0,j},
$$
where $\theta \in [0,1)$ is a relaxation parameter.
```
## Example Calculations
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Since the public has less currency (it's supply has diminished) it is plausible to anticipate that the price level at time $0$ will be driven downward.
But that is not the end of the story, because this ''open market operation'' at time $0$ has consequences for future settings of $m_{t+1}$ and the gross-of-interest government deficit $\bar g_t$.
But that is not the end of the story, because this **open market operation** at time $0$ has consequences for future settings of $m_{t+1}$ and the gross-of-interest government deficit $\bar g_t$.
Let's start with some imports:
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from collections import namedtuple
```
Now let's dive in and implement our ''pseudo code'' in Python.
Now let's dive in and implement our pseudo code in Python.
```{code-cell} ipython3
# Create a namedtuple that contains parameters
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return p0
```
Let's look at how price level $p_0$ in the stationary $R_u$ equilibrium depends on the initial
money supply $m_0$.
Notice that the slope of $p_0$ as a function of $m_0$ is constant.
This outcome indicates that our model verifies a ''quantity theory of money'' outcome,
something that Sargent and Wallace {cite}`sargent1981` purposefully built into their model to justify
the adjective **monetarist** in their title.
This outcome indicates that our model verifies a quantity theory of money outcome,
something that {cite:t}`sargent1981` purposefully built into their model to justify
the adjective *monetarist* in their title.
```{code-cell} ipython3
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plot_path([80, 100], msm)
```
{numref}`fig:unpl1` summarizes outcomes of two experiments that convey messages of {cite}`sargent1981`.
{numref}`fig:unpl1` summarizes outcomes of two experiments that convey messages of {cite:t}`sargent1981`.
* An open market operation that reduces the supply of money at time $t=0$ reduces the price level at time $t=0$
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