diff --git a/lectures/heavy_tails.md b/lectures/heavy_tails.md index df111e9d..639e6b1d 100644 --- a/lectures/heavy_tails.md +++ b/lectures/heavy_tails.md @@ -39,7 +39,17 @@ register_matplotlib_converters() ## Overview -In this section we give some motivation for the lecture. +Heavy-tailed distributions are a class of distributions that generate "extreme" outcomes. + +In the natural sciences (and in more traditional economics courses), heavy-tailed distributions are seen as quite exotic and non-standard. + +However, it turns out that heavy-tailed distributions play a crucial role in economics. + +In fact many -- if not most -- of the important distributions in economics are heavy tailed. + +In this lecture we explain what heavy tails are and why they are -- or at least +why they should be -- central to economic analysis. + ### Introduction: light tails @@ -112,7 +122,7 @@ too much from the mean. Putting this another way, light-tailed distributions are those that rarely generate extreme values. -(A more formal definition is given below.) +(A more formal definition is given [below](https://intro.quantecon.org/heavy_tails.html#light-and-heavy-tails).) Many statisticians and econometricians use rules of thumb such as "outcomes more than four or five @@ -196,9 +206,19 @@ The histogram also looks different to the histogram of the normal distribution: ```{code-cell} ipython3 +r = np.random.standard_t(df=5, size=1000) + fig, ax = plt.subplots() ax.hist(r, bins=60, alpha=0.4, label='bitcoin returns', density=True) + +xmin, xmax = plt.xlim() +x = np.linspace(xmin, xmax, 100) +p = norm.pdf(x, np.mean(r), np.std(r)) +ax.plot(x, p, 'k', linewidth=2, label='normal distribution') + ax.set_xlabel('returns', fontsize=12) +ax.legend() + plt.show() ``` @@ -246,7 +266,7 @@ like * forecasting * taxation (across a heavy-tailed income distribution), etc. -We return to these points below. +We return to these points [below](https://intro.quantecon.org/heavy_tails.html#why-do-heavy-tails-matter). @@ -254,6 +274,7 @@ We return to these points below. ## Visual comparisons +In this section, we will introduce important concepts such as the Pareto distribution, Counter CDFs, and Power laws, which aid in recognizing heavy-tailed distributions. Later we will provide a mathematical definition of the difference between light and heavy tails. @@ -523,7 +544,7 @@ plt.show() As with the CCDF, the empirical CCDF from the Pareto distributions is approximately linear in a log-log plot. -We will use this idea below when we look at real data. +We will use this idea [below](https://intro.quantecon.org/heavy_tails.html#heavy-tails-in-economic-cross-sections) when we look at real data. ### Power laws