tests (with dry-run) list EVERY file, not just changed ones? (Newby)

[rbelew]

I expect there is something simple and silly I am missing, but:

I am using commands like this:

rsync --log-format="'%n' %M %o %i" --dry-run -a LOCAL_DIR remotehost:REMOTE_DIR

and no matter what options I specify (--update, --size-only, --times) I get a
list of ALL files in LOCAL_DIR with <f+++++++ flags, which I interpret as meaning
they would get copied over.

LOCAL_DIR is on OSX, remote is ubuntu.

Any clues as to what I am missing?