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Model_Saver.Rmd
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Model_Saver.Rmd
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---
title: "Modelling for App"
author: "Niedrigwasser"
date: "4/14/2023"
output: html_document
---
```{r setup, include=FALSE}
renv::restore()
library(tidyverse)
library(mgcv)
library(lubridate)
library(timetk)
library(RcppRoll)
library(dLagM)
library(dlnm)
library(zoo)
theme_set(theme_gray())
library(knitr)
library(kableExtra)
library(sf)
library(tmap)
library(gridExtra)
library(lubridate)
library(timetk)
library(RcppRoll)
library(dLagM)
library(dlnm)
library(zoo)
theme_set(theme_gray())
library(js)
library(sjPlot)
library(verification)
library(ROCR)
library(pROC)
# Read data
source("data_read.R")
```
# Volle Modelle für alle Pegel und Halbjahre
```{r}
gam_all_winter_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(max_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_all_winter_10304)
AIC(gam_all_winter_10304)
gam_all_summer_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(max_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_all_summer_10304)
AIC(gam_all_summer_10304)
gam_all_winter_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(max_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_all_winter_11502)
AIC(gam_all_winter_11502)
gam_all_summer_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(max_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_all_summer_11502)
AIC(gam_all_summer_11502)
gam_all_winter_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(max_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_all_winter_20203)
AIC(gam_all_winter_20203)
gam_all_summer_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(max_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_all_summer_20203)
AIC(gam_all_summer_20203)
```
# Selektierte Modelle für alle Pregel und Halbjahre
## 1
```{r}
# nur Treiber: avg_precip, avg_airtmp, avg_glorad, avg_soilwater, avg_snowstorage, groundwaterdepth um Multikollinearität zu vermeiden (in keinem der 6 Datensätze eine Korrelation von > 0.8 bzw. <-0.8)
gam_uni_selected_winter_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304)
AIC(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304)
BIC(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304)
concurvity(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304)
#plot(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam_uni_selected_summer_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304)
AIC(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304)
BIC(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304)
concurvity(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304)
#plot(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam_uni_selected_winter_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_uni_selected_winter_11502)
AIC(gam_uni_selected_winter_11502)
BIC(gam_uni_selected_winter_11502)
concurvity(gam_uni_selected_winter_11502)
#plot(gam_uni_selected_winter_11502, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam_uni_selected_summer_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502)
AIC(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502)
BIC(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502)
concurvity(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502)
#plot(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam_uni_selected_winter_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203)
AIC(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203)
BIC(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203)
concurvity(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203)
#plot(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam_uni_selected_summer_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam_uni_selected_summer_20203)
AIC(gam_uni_selected_summer_20203)
BIC(gam_uni_selected_summer_20203)
concurvity(gam_uni_selected_summer_20203)
#plot(gam_uni_selected_summer_20203, ylim = c(-7, 7))
```
# Effect Plots
```{r}
# Isar Winter
# Soilwater
jpeg("./Plots/Max/soilwater_winter_isar.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-6,6), xlab = "Rolling mean oberflächennahe rel. Bodenfeuchte \n (letzte 60 Tage; zentriert, skaliert)", select = 4, main = "Isar Mittenwald \n Effekt der mittleren oberfl. rel. Bodenfeuchte", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Glorad
jpeg("./Plots/Max/glorad_winter_isar.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-250, 600), xlab = "Rolling mean einfallende kurzwellige Strahlung \n (letzte 7 Tage; zentriert)", select = 3, main = "Isar Mittenwald \n Effekt der mittleren einfallenden kurzwelligen Strahlung", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Lufttemperatur
jpeg("./Plots/Max/airtmp_winter_isar.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-15, 15), xlab = "Rolling mean Lufttemperatur \n (letzte 7 Tage; zentriert)", select = 2, main = "Isar Mittenwald \n Effekt der mittleren Lufttemperatur", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Saale Winter
# Soilwater
jpeg("./Plots/Max/soilwater_winter_saale.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-6, 6), xlab = "Rolling mean oberflächennahe rel. Bodenfeuchte \n (letzte 60 Tage; zentriert, skaliert)", select = 4, main = "Fränkische Saale Salz \n Effekt der mittleren oberfl. rel. Bodenfeuchte", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Glorad
jpeg("./Plots/Max/glorad_winter_saale.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlab = "Rolling mean einfallende kurzwellige Strahlung \n (letzte 7 Tage; zentriert)", xlim = c(-250, 600), select = 3, main = "Fränkische Saale Salz \n Effekt der mittleren einfallenden kurzwelligen Strahlung", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Lufttemperatur
jpeg("./Plots/Max/airtmp_winter_saale.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-15, 15), xlab = "Rolling mean Lufttemperatur \n (letzte 7 Tage; zentriert)", select = 2, main = "Fränkische Saale Salz \n Effekt der mittleren Lufttemperatur", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Summer
# Isar Summer
# Soilwater
jpeg("./Plots/Max/soilwater_summer_isar.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-5, 2), xlab = "Rolling mean oberflächennahe rel. Bodenfeuchte \n (letzte 60 Tage; zentriert, skaliert)", select = 4, main = "Isar Mittenwald \n Effekt der mittleren oberfl. rel. Bodenfeuchte", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Snowstorage
jpeg("./Plots/Max/snow_summer_isar.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-50, 50), xlab = "Rolling mean Schneespeicher \n (letzte 30 Tage; zentriert)", select = 5, main = "Isar Mittenwald \n Effekt des mittleren Schneespeichers", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Niederschlag
jpeg("./Plots/Max/precip_summer_isar.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-5, 5), xlab = "Rolling mean Niederschlag \n (letzte 7 Tage; zentriert)", select = 1, main = "Isar Mittenwald \n Effekt des mittleren Niederschlags", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Iller Summer
# Soilwater
jpeg("./Plots/Max/soilwater_summer_iller.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-5, 2), xlab = "Rolling mean oberflächennahe rel. Bodenfeuchte \n (letzte 60 Tage; zentriert, skaliert)", select = 4, main = "Iller Kempten \n Effekt der mittleren oberfl. rel. Bodenfeuchte", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Snowstorage
jpeg("./Plots/Max/snow_summer_iller.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-50, 50), xlab = "Rolling mean Schneespeicher \n (letzte 30 Tage; zentriert)", select = 5, main = "Iller Kempten \n Effekt des mittleren Schneespeichers", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
# Niederschlag
jpeg("./Plots/Max/precip_summer_iller.jpeg", width = 750, height = 620)
plot(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502, ylim = c(-7, 7), xlim = c(-5, 5), xlab = "Rolling mean Niederschlag \n (letzte 7 Tage; zentriert)", select = 1, main = "Iller Kempten \n Effekt des mittleren Niederschlags", ylab = "log. Odds")
dev.off()
```
# Selektierte Modelle für alle Pregel und Halbjahre
## 2
```{r}
# nur Treiber: avg_airtmp, avg_relhum, avg_soilwater, avg_snowstorage, groundwaterdepth, avg_infiltration um Multikollinearität zu vermeiden (in keinem der 6 Datensätze eine Korrelation von > 0.8 bzw. <-0.8)
gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304)
AIC(gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304)
BIC(gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304)
concurvity(gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304)
#plot(gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304)
AIC(gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304)
BIC(gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304)
concurvity(gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304)
#plot(gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502)
AIC(gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502)
BIC(gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502)
concurvity(gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502)
#plot(gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502)
AIC(gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502)
BIC(gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502)
concurvity(gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502)
#plot(gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203)
AIC(gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203)
BIC(gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203)
concurvity(gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203)
#plot(gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203, ylim = c(-7, 7))
gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203)
AIC(gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203)
BIC(gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203)
concurvity(gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203)
#plot(gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203, ylim = c(-7, 7))
```
# Selektierte Modelle für alle Pregel und Halbjahre mit individuellen Interaktionen
```{r}
# 10304, Winter
gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_glorad, avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_soilwater, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
AIC(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304)
# 10304, Summer
gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_soilwater, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_airtmp, avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
AIC(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304)
# 11502, Winter
gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_snowstorage, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
AIC(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502)
# 11502, Summer
gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_soilwater, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_airtmp, avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
AIC(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502)
# 20203, Winter
gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_airtmp, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_soilwater, avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
AIC(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203)
# 20203, Summer
# avg_snowstorage und avg_snowstorage_drain aufgrund von mangelnder Varianz in den Daten herausgenommen
gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_soilwater, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_airtmp, avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
AIC(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203)
```
# ROC Analysis for final models
```{r}
# Setup test set
hydro_winter_11502_test <- hydro_winter_11502 %>% filter(member != "kbe")
hydro_winter_11502_test$lowlevel <- as.logical(hydro_winter_11502_test$lowlevel)
hydro_summer_11502_test <- hydro_summer_11502 %>% filter(member != "kbe")
hydro_summer_11502_test$lowlevel <- as.logical(hydro_summer_11502_test$lowlevel)
hydro_winter_10304_test <- hydro_winter_10304 %>% filter(member != "kbe")
hydro_winter_10304_test$lowlevel <- as.logical(hydro_winter_10304_test$lowlevel)
hydro_summer_10304_test <- hydro_summer_10304 %>% filter(member != "kbe")
hydro_summer_10304_test$lowlevel <- as.logical(hydro_summer_10304_test$lowlevel)
hydro_winter_20203_test <- hydro_winter_20203 %>% filter(member != "kbe")
hydro_winter_20203_test$lowlevel <- as.logical(hydro_winter_20203_test$lowlevel)
hydro_summer_20203_test <- hydro_summer_20203 %>% filter(member != "kbe")
hydro_summer_20203_test$lowlevel <- as.logical(hydro_summer_20203_test$lowlevel)
# gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304
hydro_winter_10304_pred <- predict(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304, hydro_winter_10304_test, type = "response")
roc.plot(hydro_winter_10304_test$lowlevel, hydro_winter_10304_pred, xlab = "1 - Spezifität", ylab = "Sensitivität")
hydro_summer_10304_pred <- predict(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304, hydro_summer_10304_test, type = "response")
roc.plot(hydro_summer_10304_test$lowlevel, hydro_summer_10304_pred, xlab = "1 - Spezifität", ylab = "Sensitivität")
hydro_winter_11502_pred <- predict(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502, hydro_winter_11502_test, type = "response")
roc.plot(hydro_winter_11502_test$lowlevel, hydro_winter_11502_pred, xlab = "1 - Spezifität", ylab = "Sensitivität")
hydro_summer_11502_pred <- predict(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502, hydro_summer_11502_test, type = "response")
roc.plot(hydro_summer_11502_test$lowlevel, hydro_summer_11502_pred, xlab = "1 - Spezifität", ylab = "Sensitivität")
hydro_winter_20203_pred <- predict(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203, hydro_winter_20203_test, type = "response")
roc.plot(hydro_winter_20203_test$lowlevel, hydro_winter_20203_pred, xlab = "1 - Spezifität", ylab = "Sensitivität")
hydro_summer_20203_pred <- predict(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203, hydro_summer_20203_test, type = "response")
roc.plot(hydro_summer_20203_test$lowlevel, hydro_summer_20203_pred, xlab = "1 - Spezifität", ylab = "Sensitivität")
```
# Save Models ----
## Volle Modelle ----
```{r}
save(gam_all_summer_10304, file = "added_data/models/gam_all_summer_10304.Rdata")
save(gam_all_summer_11502, file = "added_data/models/gam_all_summer_11502.Rdata")
save(gam_all_summer_20203, file = "added_data/models/gam_all_summer_20203.Rdata")
save(gam_all_winter_10304, file = "added_data/models/gam_all_winter_10304.Rdata")
save(gam_all_winter_11502, file = "added_data/models/gam_all_winter_11502.Rdata")
save(gam_all_winter_20203, file = "added_data/models/gam_all_winter_20203.Rdata")
```
## Selected Modelle 1 ----
```{r}
save(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_summer_10304.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_summer_11502.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_summer_20203, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_summer_20203.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_winter_10304.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_winter_11502, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_winter_11502.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_winter_20203.Rdata")
```
## Selected Modelle 2 ----
```{r}
save(gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304, file = "added_data/models/gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304.Rdata")
save(gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502, file = "added_data/models/gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502.Rdata")
save(gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203, file = "added_data/models/gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203.Rdata")
save(gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304, file = "added_data/models/gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304.Rdata")
save(gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502, file = "added_data/models/gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502.Rdata")
save(gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203, file = "added_data/models/gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203.Rdata")
```
# GAM Interactions ----
```{r}
save(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203, file = "added_data/models/gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203.Rdata")
```
# LE Models
```{r}
# Winter
# Full Model ----
# 20203 (Precip, infiltration, snowdrain)
summary(gam_all_winter_20203)
le_gam_all_winter_20203 <- gam(lowlevel ~ YY + avg_precip + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater,bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + avg_infiltration + s(max_precip,bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage_drain,
family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_all_winter_20203)
# 11502 (precip, relhum, max_precip, glorad)
summary(gam_all_winter_11502)
le_gam_all_winter_11502 <- gam(lowlevel ~ YY + avg_precip+ s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + avg_glorad + avg_relhum + s(avg_soilwater,bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + max_precip + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps"),
family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_all_winter_11502)
# 10304 (airtmp, infiltration)
summary(gam_all_winter_10304)
le_gam_all_winter_10304 <- gam(lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + avg_airtmp + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater,bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + avg_infiltration + s(max_precip,bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps"),
family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_all_winter_10304)
# Selected 1 ----
# 20203 (NONE)
summary(gam_uni_selected_winter_20203)
le_gam_uni_selected_winter_20203 <- gam_uni_selected_winter_20203
# 11502 (avg_glorad, when I remove glorad precip gets linear)
summary(gam_uni_selected_winter_11502)
le_gam_uni_selected_winter_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + avg_precip + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + avg_glorad + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_winter_11502)
# 10304 (NONE)
summary(gam_uni_selected_winter_10304)
le_gam_uni_selected_winter_10304 <- gam_uni_selected_winter_10304
# Selected 2 DONE ----
# 20203 (None)
summary(gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203)
le_gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203 <- gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203
# 11502 (None)
summary(gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502)
le_gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502 <- gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502
# 10304 (None)
summary(gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304)
le_gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304 <- gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304
# Interactions ----
# 20203 (airtmp, snowstorage, infiltration)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203)
le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + avg_airtmp + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + avg_infiltration + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_airtmp, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_soilwater, avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203)
# 11502 (relhum, precip)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502)
le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + avg_precip + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + avg_relhum + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_snowstorage, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_11502_kbe, method = "REML")# 10304 (groundwaterdepth)
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502)
# 10304 (groundwaterdepth)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304)
le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + groundwaterdepth + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(avg_snowstorage_drain, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_glorad, avg_snowstorage, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_soilwater, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_winter_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304)
# Summer ----
# Full Model ----
# 20203 (Precip, snowstorage, snowdrain)
summary(gam_all_summer_20203)
le_gam_all_summer_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + avg_precip + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(max_precip, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage_drain, family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_all_summer_20203)
# 11502 (precip, snowstorage, snowstorage_drain)
summary(gam_all_summer_11502)
le_gam_all_summer_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + avg_precip + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + s(max_precip, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage_drain, family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_all_summer_11502)
# 10304 (snowstorage, infiltration, max_precip, snowdrain)
summary(gam_all_summer_10304)
le_gam_all_summer_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + avg_infiltration + max_precip + avg_snowstorage_drain, family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_all_summer_10304)
# Selected 1 (Nota copy paste error snowstorage always linear) ----
# 20203 (snowstorage)
summary(gam_uni_selected_summer_20203)
le_gam_uni_selected_summer_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_summer_20203)
# 11502 (snowstorage)
summary(gam_uni_selected_summer_11502)
le_gam_uni_selected_summer_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_summer_11502)
# 10304 (snowstorage)
summary(gam_uni_selected_summer_10304)
le_gam_uni_selected_summer_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_precip, bs = "ps") + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_summer_10304)
# Selected 2 ----
# 20203 (airtmp snowstorage)
summary(gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203)
le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + avg_airtmp + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203)
# 11502 (snowstorage)
summary(gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502)
le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502)
# 10304 (relhum, snowstorage)
summary(gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304)
le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + avg_relhum + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304)
# Interactions ----
# 20203 (infiltration)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203)
le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_relhum, bs = "ps") + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + avg_infiltration + ti(avg_soilwater, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_airtmp, avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_20203_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203)
# 11502 (relhum, snowstorage)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502)
le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + avg_relhum + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + s(groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_soilwater, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_airtmp, avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_11502_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502)
# 10304 (groundwaterdepth, snowstorage, relhum)
summary(gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304)
le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304 <- gam(formula = lowlevel ~ YY + s(avg_airtmp, bs = "ps") + s(avg_glorad, bs = "ps") + avg_relhum + s(avg_soilwater, bs = "ps") + avg_snowstorage + groundwaterdepth + s(avg_infiltration, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_soilwater, groundwaterdepth, bs = "ps") + ti(avg_airtmp, avg_infiltration, bs = "ps"), family = binomial(), data = hydro_summer_10304_kbe, method = "REML")
summary(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304)
```
# Save LE Models
## Volle Modelle ----
```{r}
save(le_gam_all_summer_10304, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_all_summer_10304.Rdata")
save(le_gam_all_summer_11502, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_all_summer_11502.Rdata")
save(le_gam_all_summer_20203, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_all_summer_20203.Rdata")
save(le_gam_all_winter_10304, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_all_winter_10304.Rdata")
save(le_gam_all_winter_11502, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_all_winter_11502.Rdata")
save(le_gam_all_winter_20203, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_all_winter_20203.Rdata")
```
## Selected Modelle 1 ----
```{r}
save(le_gam_uni_selected_summer_10304, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_summer_10304.Rdata")
save(le_gam_uni_selected_summer_11502, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_summer_11502.Rdata")
save(le_gam_uni_selected_summer_20203, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_summer_20203.Rdata")
save(le_gam_uni_selected_winter_10304, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_winter_10304.Rdata")
save(le_gam_uni_selected_winter_11502, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_winter_11502.Rdata")
save(le_gam_uni_selected_winter_20203, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_winter_20203.Rdata")
```
## Selected Modelle 2 ----
```{r}
save(le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_10304.Rdata")
save(le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_11502.Rdata")
save(le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam2_uni_selected_summer_20203.Rdata")
save(le_gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam2_uni_selected_winter_10304.Rdata")
save(le_gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam2_uni_selected_winter_11502.Rdata")
save(le_gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam2_uni_selected_winter_20203.Rdata")
```
# GAM Interactions ----
```{r}
save(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_10304.Rdata")
save(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_11502.Rdata")
save(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_interac_summer_20203.Rdata")
save(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_10304.Rdata")
save(le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_11502.Rdata")
save(gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203, file = "added_data/le_models/le_gam_uni_selected_interac_winter_20203.Rdata")
```