diff --git a/DESCRIPTION b/DESCRIPTION index c9edab2..4c4ab87 100644 --- a/DESCRIPTION +++ b/DESCRIPTION @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ Description: Facilitates Model Running for EBS Pollock License: `use_mit_license()` Encoding: UTF-8 Roxygen: list(markdown = TRUE) -RoxygenNote: 7.2.3 +RoxygenNote: 7.3.1 Suggests: knitr, rmarkdown, diff --git a/vignettes/Assessment-planning.Rmd b/vignettes/Assessment-planning.Rmd index cdd1876..cc66813 100644 --- a/vignettes/Assessment-planning.Rmd +++ b/vignettes/Assessment-planning.Rmd @@ -21,6 +21,31 @@ knitr::opts_chunk$set( library(ebswp) ``` +# EBS pollock 2024 assessment analyses planning + +thinking on arguments for a EBS pollock "maintain ecosystem function" catch-advice rule as +requested by the SSC. I think I mentioned something about management that provides a +forage base (say of 1-3 yr old pollock) and avoids low levels. Carey and I chatted +earlier (added her to this group) and realize that the estimates of these groups +are relatively unreliable (i.e., 1-3 yr olds for next year are typically poorly estimated). + +Within the FMP we're talking about justification for catch advice below the maximum permissible. +So what about the following semi-empirical approach + - What if catch advice is adjusted up and down relative the historical mean biomass? I.e., if the catch + in the current year is say 1.2 million t, and the SSB next year is 30% above the mean, then with a + regulator to dampen change, next year’s recommendation would be 1.2 * (1.3)^0.5 =1.368 million t. + - Similarly, if the SSB next year was only 75% of the mean value, the recommendation would be 1.2 * (0.75)^0.5 =1.039 million t. + - If the SSB stayed at 75% of the mean, then the following year would be 1.039 * (.75)^0.5 = 0.8998 million t. + +The rationale proposed is that the detrimental effects of fishing on the ecosystem appear to be mainly sustainable. + +Are there assignable issues from fishing affected the ecosystem function that we’ve measured with any degree of confidence? + +If there hadn’t been any pollock fishing ever, would we be able to note that the ecosystem would be in a better state? +Tuning the adjustments based on historical catches and ecosystem outcomes would generally be deemed "acceptable" + + + # EBS 2023 assessment analyses planning ## From the 2022 SSC minutes: