Natural gas plays a key role in many energy systems today and understanding its future evolution is critical in the context of long-term energy system transitions. This study analyzes the long-term evolution of global natural gas trade and associated infrastructure by explicitly representing traded pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global multi-sectoral model. We then study their future evolution under a range of scenarios representing alternative economy-wide transitions, trade infrastructure, and trade barriers. Both traded LNG and pipeline gas may grow by mid-century, with traded LNG making up a dominant share, as it can be flexibly shipped over widespread regions. Cumulative global investments in LNG and pipeline infrastructure range from 230-1460 million tons per annum (MTPA) by 2050 across scenarios; the lower end of this range is achieved through transitioning to a low-carbon energy system along with limited trade.
Yarlagadda, B., G. Iyer, M. Binsted, P. Patel, M. Wise and J. McLeod (2024). The future evolution of global natural gas trade. iScience. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.108902
Yarlagadda, B., M. Binsted, and G. Iyer (2023). The Future Evolution of Global Natural Gas Trade Input Data. Zenodo.
Yarlagadda, B., M. Binsted, and G. Iyer (2023). The Future Evolution of Global Natural Gas Trade Output Data. Zenodo.
