Ensembles for variables

demo.ipynb

@@ -592,9 +592,10 @@
    "id": "d5144658-0015-41af-8278-20da55694238",
    "metadata": {},
    "source": [
-    "### Estimating uncertainty using WOFOST ensembles\n",
+    "### Testing model sensitivity using WOFOST ensembles\n",
     "Ensembles can also be used to estimate the uncertainty in outputs by using different combinations of input parameters.\n",
-    "Here, we will look at an example using one site."
+    "Here, we will look at an example using one site and varying one parameter.\n",
+    "First, we select a site from the BRP as before:"
    ]
   },
   {
@@ -603,6 +604,155 @@
    "id": "37f25316-cc52-4f07-95ec-c443b855bc0d",
    "metadata": {},
    "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Setup BRP\n",
+    "year = 2020\n",
+    "brp = fpcup.io.load_brp(year)\n",
+    "index = 1  # Change this to any index in the BRP table. Try some values and see what happens!\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Select plot\n",
+    "brp_plot = brp.iloc[index]\n",
+    "brp_plot"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "524b52c2-3077-4890-b333-81aa53d4f467",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "Next, we set the parameters that we want to remain fixed:"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "id": "0e00e7d9-ff8e-4a1a-a090-7eeb8b16da54",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# Setup WOFOST\n",
+    "crop_name = brp_plot[\"crop\"]\n",
+    "crop = fpcup.crop.select_crop(crop_name)\n",
+    "agromanagement = crop.agromanagement_first_sowingdate(year)  # First sowing date of the year\n",
+    "\n",
+    "soildata = fpcup.soil.soil_types[\"ec1\"]  # In the future, it will be possible to retrieve the soil type specific to this plot\n",
+    "\n",
+    "coordinates = brp_plot[\"latitude\"], brp_plot[\"longitude\"]  # Center of the plot\n",
+    "weatherdata = fpcup.weather.load_weather_data_NASAPower(coordinates)\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Combine constants\n",
+    "constants = {\"agromanagement\": agromanagement, \"soildata\": soildata, \"weatherdata\": weatherdata, \"latitude\": coordinates[0], \"longitude\": coordinates[1]}"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "20e6d8ed-1e48-4401-8d12-a9b0584d8de4",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "Now, we set the variable parameters.\n",
+    "In this case, we will look at the effects of varying `WAV`, that is the initial amount of water in the rootable zone in excess of wilting point.\n",
+    "WOFOST allows for `WAV` values between 0 and 50 cm, with a default of 10 cm (which was implicitly used in the previous runs).\n",
+    "You can use the variable `n` to determine how many values of `WAV` will be used."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "id": "4cad40e5-3f5b-47d7-975c-25656b097d15",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "n = 51  # Number of values to test\n",
+    "variable_names = [\"WAV\"]\n",
+    "combined_parameters = fpcup.parameters.generate_ensemble_space(*variable_names, n=n)\n",
+    "variables = {\"override\": combined_parameters}\n",
+    "variables = fpcup.tools.dict_product(variables)  # Pack the variables into one iterable of dictionaries\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Setup output folder\n",
+    "output_dir = fpcup.io.Path(\"outputs/demo/WAV/\")"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "id": "601b28b5-d506-4d3d-9ed3-5daa678373d0",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "model_statuses = fpcup.model.run_pcse_ensemble(variables, output_dir, run_data_constants=constants)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "9de5a38c-064e-40a3-b3f6-9a30a4534fad",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "The outputs can be plotted as follows:"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "id": "1746ee07-998e-48f7-aa2d-14dd2c9933f5",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "# TO DO: Refactor ensemble plot"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "484c541f-4c15-4c52-b9ef-c5715f7cdd9a",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "#### Ensembles testing multiple parameters\n",
+    "It is also possible to run an ensemble for multiple variables at the same time, although this exponentially increases the run time.\n",
+    "Here, we will look at an example where both `WAV` (as before) and `RDMSOL` (the maximum rooting depth allowed by the soil) are varied at the same time.\n",
+    "All other parameters are re-used from the previous cells."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "id": "860fbcc7-1316-4ac1-872b-3c9175626f57",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "n = 51  # Number of values to test\n",
+    "variable_names = [\"WAV\", \"RDMSOL\"]\n",
+    "combined_parameters = fpcup.parameters.generate_ensemble_space(*variable_names, n=n)\n",
+    "variables = {\"override\": combined_parameters}\n",
+    "variables = fpcup.tools.dict_product(variables)  # Pack the variables into one iterable of dictionaries\n",
+    "\n",
+    "# Setup output folder\n",
+    "output_dir = fpcup.io.Path(\"outputs/demo/RDMSOL-WAV/\")"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "id": "2d226a6f-2e25-45c8-83b2-0906e9a6370f",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
+   "source": [
+    "model_statuses = fpcup.model.run_pcse_ensemble(variables, output_dir, run_data_constants=constants)"
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "markdown",
+   "id": "7763a722-4088-428f-b927-c84da98f8662",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "source": [
+    "#### Multiple sowing dates\n",
+    "As an additional example, we can run WOFOST using fixed or variable parameters for multiple sowing dates, to see the effects this has on crop growth."
+   ]
+  },
+  {
+   "cell_type": "code",
+   "execution_count": null,
+   "id": "3415eb26-fa28-4e33-8916-20ae281dd865",
+   "metadata": {},
+   "outputs": [],
    "source": []
   }
  ],