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an NFL game elo-based forecaster based on the model by fivethirtyeight.com

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NFL Predictions

This is an NFL prediction repository that is originally based on FiveThirtyEight's NFL Forecasting model and repositories. This repository has been stripped of its historical evaluations and focuses solely on future prediction.

What it does

eval.py is the only runnable script, and does the following:

  1. Reads in the CSV of historical games. Each row includes a elo_prob1 field, which is the probability that team1 will win the game according to the Elo model.
  2. Fills in a my_prob1 field for every game using code in forecast.py. By default, these are filled in using the exact same Elo model.
  3. Prints the resulting Elo values for each team given the games and outcomes in the supplied CSV files.
  4. Lists forecasts for upcoming games, including win probabilities, spread, and decimal odds.
  5. Creates or updates nfl-elo-game-updated.csv file for the new Elo values and probabilities so that the nfl-elo-game.csv file can be updated for the next week of games after confirming results.

Simply run python eval.py.

Sample output:

Sample output

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an NFL game elo-based forecaster based on the model by fivethirtyeight.com

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