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Show degree of uncertainty instead of just the winner #18

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corneliusroemer opened this issue Aug 14, 2024 · 0 comments
Open

Show degree of uncertainty instead of just the winner #18

corneliusroemer opened this issue Aug 14, 2024 · 0 comments

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@corneliusroemer
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corneliusroemer commented Aug 14, 2024

I noticed that the most likely model is highlighted quite a lot, even if another model is very close to it.

I find especially the tick mark ✅ a bit misleading: here there's no overwhelming evidence it was a chronic infection. It's just compatible with it.

This might cause people to make false positive deductions.

for example, chronic infection might be much less likely to occur in general (lower prior) and here the advantage for chronic is very small, yet the result is "it's chronic"

Brave Browser 2024-08-14 19 59 53

It might make sense to present the output as a pseudo probability table. Rather than saying: this is the winner, say: chronic: 80%, omicron: 19%, molnu: 1%, pre-omicron: 0%. This presentation would provide more context as to the certainty (even if exact probablilities of course can't be trusted as they heavily depend on priors and model assumptions)

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