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fabfischer edited this page Sep 9, 2022 · 1 revision

How does bidding on a player with a bid lower than the market value work?

A bid with 0.9% lower than the market value is a bet. And nothing more. You can't be sure that Kickbase will accept it.

The -0.9% results from my experience that this is the best compromise between "risky bet" and "get the player". I don't know Kickbase's calculations, but: the higher you bid below market value, the less likely you will get the player.

So bidding just -0.4% market value is safer than -0.9%. But both bids might be rejected by Kickbase.

And another important note: The more expensive a player is, the riskier it is to bid -0.9% below the market value. Examples: 0.9% below market value

I would argue, that -0.9% bid for a player with a market value of 500.000€ is a bet with a >99% chance of success
Bidding -0.9% for a for a player with a market value of 5.000.000€ might be a bet with a 75% chance of success
Bidding -0.9% for a player with a market value of higher than 10.000.000€ might be a bet with a 50% chance of success
Bidding -0.9% for a player with a market value of higher than 20.000.000€ might be a bet with a 33% chance of success
Bidding -0.9% for a player with a market value of higher than 30.000.000€ might be a bet with a 10-25% chance of success

0.3% below market value

Bidding -0.3% bid for a player with a market value of 500.000€ is a bet with a >99% chance of success
Bidding -0.3% for a for a player with a market value of 5.000.000€ might be a bet with a >90% chance of success
Bidding -0.3% for a player with a market value of higher than 10.000.000€ might be a bet with a >75% chance of success
Bidding -0.3% for a player with a market value of higher than 20.000.000€ might be a bet with a >50% chance of success
Bidding -0.3% for a player with a market value of higher than 30.000.000€ might be a bet with a >33% chance of success

(I think, you get the idea)

You can bid 480.000 for a player with 500.000 market value, which is -4% below market value and Kickbase might accept it. But it's very, very unlikely that Kickbase will accept a >-2% bid for a high-priced player.

If you want the player for sure, you have to bid the MV. Or for expensive players perhaps only bid 0.3% below the market value (which is still a bet on getting the player)

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