From 55e1c6386b72775fb5ad7eca0a9d4592b3086ee0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Peter Jung <peter@jung.ninja>
Date: Wed, 25 Sep 2024 14:40:51 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] Compute OFVChallenger accuracy (#484)

---
 poetry.lock                                   | 610 +++++++++---------
 .../agents/ofvchallenger_agent/deploy.py      |  11 +-
 .../omen_resolve_replicated.py                |   1 +
 pyproject.toml                                |   2 +-
 scripts/challenger_reality_accuracy.py        |  32 +
 5 files changed, 352 insertions(+), 304 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 scripts/challenger_reality_accuracy.py

diff --git a/poetry.lock b/poetry.lock
index 0c21834..0d9ac95 100644
--- a/poetry.lock
+++ b/poetry.lock
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-# This file is automatically @generated by Poetry 1.8.2 and should not be changed by hand.
+# This file is automatically @generated by Poetry 1.8.3 and should not be changed by hand.
 
 [[package]]
 name = "aiohappyeyeballs"
@@ -13,102 +13,102 @@ files = [
 
 [[package]]
 name = "aiohttp"
-version = "3.10.5"
+version = "3.10.6"
 description = "Async http client/server framework (asyncio)"
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8"
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+    {file = "aiohttp-3.10.6.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:d2578ef941be0c2ba58f6f421a703527d08427237ed45ecb091fed6f83305336"},
 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -118,7 +118,7 @@ async-timeout = {version = ">=4.0,<5.0", markers = "python_version < \"3.11\""}
 attrs = ">=17.3.0"
 frozenlist = ">=1.1.1"
 multidict = ">=4.5,<7.0"
-yarl = ">=1.0,<2.0"
+yarl = ">=1.12.0,<2.0"
 
 [package.extras]
 speedups = ["Brotli", "aiodns (>=3.2.0)", "brotlicffi"]
@@ -139,13 +139,13 @@ frozenlist = ">=1.1.0"
 
 [[package]]
 name = "alembic"
-version = "1.13.2"
+version = "1.13.3"
 description = "A database migration tool for SQLAlchemy."
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8"
 files = [
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+    {file = "alembic-1.13.3.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:203503117415561e203aa14541740643a611f641517f0209fcae63e9fa09f1a2"},
 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -665,17 +665,17 @@ numpy = {version = ">=1.19.0", markers = "python_version >= \"3.9\""}
 
 [[package]]
 name = "boto3"
-version = "1.35.24"
+version = "1.35.26"
 description = "The AWS SDK for Python"
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8"
 files = [
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+    {file = "boto3-1.35.26.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:b04087afd3570ba540fd293823c77270ec675672af23da9396bd5988a3f8128b"},
 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
-botocore = ">=1.35.24,<1.36.0"
+botocore = ">=1.35.26,<1.36.0"
 jmespath = ">=0.7.1,<2.0.0"
 s3transfer = ">=0.10.0,<0.11.0"
 
@@ -684,13 +684,13 @@ crt = ["botocore[crt] (>=1.21.0,<2.0a0)"]
 
 [[package]]
 name = "botocore"
-version = "1.35.24"
+version = "1.35.26"
 description = "Low-level, data-driven core of boto 3."
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8"
 files = [
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 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -1926,18 +1926,18 @@ files = [
 
 [[package]]
 name = "duckduckgo-search"
-version = "6.2.12"
+version = "6.2.13"
 description = "Search for words, documents, images, news, maps and text translation using the DuckDuckGo.com search engine."
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8"
 files = [
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 [package.dependencies]
 click = ">=8.1.7"
-primp = ">=0.6.2"
+primp = ">=0.6.3"
 
 [package.extras]
 dev = ["mypy (>=1.11.1)", "pytest (>=8.3.1)", "pytest-asyncio (>=0.23.8)", "ruff (>=0.6.1)"]
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 description = "Tools to manipulate font files"
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 python-versions = ">=3.8"
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 ]
 
 [package.extras]
@@ -2889,13 +2895,13 @@ httplib2 = ">=0.19.0"
 
 [[package]]
 name = "google-cloud-aiplatform"
-version = "1.67.1"
+version = "1.68.0"
 description = "Vertex AI API client library"
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8"
 files = [
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 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -2926,7 +2932,7 @@ pipelines = ["pyyaml (>=5.3.1,<7)"]
 prediction = ["docker (>=5.0.3)", "fastapi (>=0.71.0,<=0.114.0)", "httpx (>=0.23.0,<0.25.0)", "starlette (>=0.17.1)", "uvicorn[standard] (>=0.16.0)"]
 private-endpoints = ["requests (>=2.28.1)", "urllib3 (>=1.21.1,<1.27)"]
 ray = ["google-cloud-bigquery", "google-cloud-bigquery-storage", "immutabledict", "pandas (>=1.0.0,<2.2.0)", "pyarrow (>=6.0.1)", "ray[default] (>=2.4,<2.5.dev0 || >2.9.0,!=2.9.1,!=2.9.2,<2.10.dev0 || >=2.33.dev0,<=2.33.0)", "ray[default] (>=2.5,<=2.33.0)", "setuptools (<70.0.0)"]
-ray-testing = ["google-cloud-bigquery", "google-cloud-bigquery-storage", "immutabledict", "pandas (>=1.0.0,<2.2.0)", "pyarrow (>=6.0.1)", "pytest-xdist", "ray[default] (>=2.4,<2.5.dev0 || >2.9.0,!=2.9.1,!=2.9.2,<2.10.dev0 || >=2.33.dev0,<=2.33.0)", "ray[default] (>=2.5,<=2.33.0)", "ray[train] (==2.9.3)", "scikit-learn", "setuptools (<70.0.0)", "tensorflow", "torch (>=2.0.0,<2.1.0)", "xgboost", "xgboost-ray"]
+ray-testing = ["google-cloud-bigquery", "google-cloud-bigquery-storage", "immutabledict", "pandas (>=1.0.0,<2.2.0)", "pyarrow (>=6.0.1)", "pytest-xdist", "ray[default] (>=2.4,<2.5.dev0 || >2.9.0,!=2.9.1,!=2.9.2,<2.10.dev0 || >=2.33.dev0,<=2.33.0)", "ray[default] (>=2.5,<=2.33.0)", "ray[train]", "scikit-learn", "setuptools (<70.0.0)", "tensorflow", "torch (>=2.0.0,<2.1.0)", "xgboost", "xgboost-ray"]
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@@ -3636,13 +3642,13 @@ files = [
 
 [[package]]
 name = "huggingface-hub"
-version = "0.25.0"
+version = "0.25.1"
 description = "Client library to download and publish models, datasets and other repos on the huggingface.co hub"
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8.0"
 files = [
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 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -4378,13 +4384,13 @@ langchain-core = ">=0.2.38,<0.3.0"
 
 [[package]]
 name = "langcodes"
-version = "3.4.0"
+version = "3.4.1"
 description = "Tools for labeling human languages with IETF language tags"
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8"
 files = [
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 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -4396,13 +4402,13 @@ test = ["pytest", "pytest-cov"]
 
 [[package]]
 name = "langfuse"
-version = "2.50.2"
+version = "2.50.3"
 description = "A client library for accessing langfuse"
 optional = false
 python-versions = "<4.0,>=3.8.1"
 files = [
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 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -4421,13 +4427,13 @@ openai = ["openai (>=0.27.8)"]
 
 [[package]]
 name = "langsmith"
-version = "0.1.125"
+version = "0.1.128"
 description = "Client library to connect to the LangSmith LLM Tracing and Evaluation Platform."
 optional = false
 python-versions = "<4.0,>=3.8.1"
 files = [
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 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -5665,13 +5671,13 @@ files = [
 
 [[package]]
 name = "narwhals"
-version = "1.8.2"
+version = "1.8.3"
 description = "Extremely lightweight compatibility layer between dataframe libraries"
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8"
 files = [
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+    {file = "narwhals-1.8.3.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:416ddc72f98884e0bf4976a453f541fb395653bddce03c27b3fa52550f325cc0"},
 ]
 
 [package.extras]
@@ -5915,18 +5921,18 @@ sympy = "*"
 
 [[package]]
 name = "open-aea"
-version = "1.56.0"
+version = "1.57.0"
 description = "Open Autonomous Economic Agent framework (without vendor lock-in)"
 optional = false
 python-versions = ">=3.8"
 files = [
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 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -5954,13 +5960,13 @@ test-tools = ["click (>=8.1.0,<9)", "coverage (>=6.4.4,<8.0.0)", "jsonschema (>=
 
 [[package]]
 name = "open-aea-cli-ipfs"
-version = "1.56.0"
+version = "1.57.0"
 description = "CLI extension for open AEA framework wrapping IPFS functionality."
 optional = false
 python-versions = "*"
 files = [
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 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -5970,13 +5976,13 @@ pytest = ">=7.0.0,<7.3.0"
 
 [[package]]
 name = "open-aea-ledger-cosmos"
-version = "1.56.0"
+version = "1.57.0"
 description = "Python package wrapping the public and private key cryptography and ledger api of Cosmos."
 optional = false
 python-versions = "*"
 files = [
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+    {file = "open_aea_ledger_cosmos-1.57.0-py3-none-any.whl", hash = "sha256:dfedc58ae4cebd938b51834f3eca5e2c8ffce95661a84212c3c4b6341e8952d4"},
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 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -5988,13 +5994,13 @@ pycryptodome = ">=3.10.1,<4.0.0"
 
 [[package]]
 name = "open-aea-ledger-ethereum"
-version = "1.56.0"
+version = "1.57.0"
 description = "Python package wrapping the public and private key cryptography and ledger api of Ethereum."
 optional = false
 python-versions = "*"
 files = [
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 [[package]]
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 python-versions = "<3.12,>=3.10"
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 [[package]]
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+    {file = "yarl-1.12.1.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:5b860055199aec8d6fe4dcee3c5196ce506ca198a50aab0059ffd26e8e815828"},
 ]
 
 [package.dependencies]
@@ -10967,4 +10973,4 @@ type = ["pytest-mypy"]
 [metadata]
 lock-version = "2.0"
 python-versions = "~3.10.0"
-content-hash = "9b8fbdb59323f430c9f72590e8806238ec1f0fc1aaca074da883a00eb5a72dc4"
+content-hash = "988731d696458a6a8b211aceaafa96800d9490a7bed0862530df84cecb39aa7f"
diff --git a/prediction_market_agent/agents/ofvchallenger_agent/deploy.py b/prediction_market_agent/agents/ofvchallenger_agent/deploy.py
index 9d67288..cd7c597 100644
--- a/prediction_market_agent/agents/ofvchallenger_agent/deploy.py
+++ b/prediction_market_agent/agents/ofvchallenger_agent/deploy.py
@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@
     OmenSubgraphHandler,
 )
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.langfuse_ import langfuse_context, observe
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.omen.reality_accuracy import reality_accuracy
 from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import utcnow
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 from web3 import Web3
@@ -81,6 +82,14 @@ def challenge(self, api_keys: APIKeys) -> None:
         for market in markets_open_for_answers:
             self.challenge_market(market, api_keys)
 
+        # Compute accuracy on Reality and report as error if it goes down too much.
+        last_week_accuracy = reality_accuracy(
+            api_keys.bet_from_address, timedelta(days=7)
+        )
+        (logger.info if last_week_accuracy.accuracy >= 0.8 else logger.error)(
+            f"Last weeks accuracy is {last_week_accuracy.accuracy} on {last_week_accuracy.total} questions."
+        )
+
     @observe()
     def challenge_market(
         self,
@@ -92,7 +101,7 @@ def challenge_market(
         langfuse_context.update_current_observation(metadata={"url": market.url})
 
         existing_responses = OmenSubgraphHandler().get_responses(
-            question_id=market.question.id
+            limit=None, question_id=market.question.id
         )
         logger.info(
             f"{market.url=}'s responses and bonds: {[(r.answer, r.bond_xdai) for r in existing_responses]}"
diff --git a/prediction_market_agent/agents/replicate_to_omen_agent/omen_resolve_replicated.py b/prediction_market_agent/agents/replicate_to_omen_agent/omen_resolve_replicated.py
index 4caff54..40e6995 100644
--- a/prediction_market_agent/agents/replicate_to_omen_agent/omen_resolve_replicated.py
+++ b/prediction_market_agent/agents/replicate_to_omen_agent/omen_resolve_replicated.py
@@ -99,6 +99,7 @@ def claim_all_bonds_on_reality(
 
     # Fetch our responses that are on already finalised questions, but we didn't claim the bonded xDai yet.
     responses: list[RealityResponse] = OmenSubgraphHandler().get_responses(
+        limit=None,
         user=public_key,
         question_claimed=False,
         question_finalized_before=finalized_before,
diff --git a/pyproject.toml b/pyproject.toml
index 018b3a0..ed543ff 100644
--- a/pyproject.toml
+++ b/pyproject.toml
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ poetry = "^1.7.1"
 poetry-plugin-export = "^1.6.0"
 functions-framework = "^3.5.0"
 cron-validator = "^1.0.8"
-prediction-market-agent-tooling = { version = "^0.48.17", extras = ["langchain", "google"] }
+prediction-market-agent-tooling = { version = "^0.48.18", extras = ["langchain", "google"] }
 pydantic-settings = "^2.1.0"
 autoflake = "^2.2.1"
 isort = "^5.13.2"
diff --git a/scripts/challenger_reality_accuracy.py b/scripts/challenger_reality_accuracy.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..e4fe697
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/challenger_reality_accuracy.py
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+from datetime import timedelta
+
+import typer
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.omen.reality_accuracy import reality_accuracy
+
+from prediction_market_agent.agents.ofvchallenger_agent.deploy import (
+    MARKET_CREATORS_TO_CHALLENGE,
+    OFV_CHALLENGER_SAFE_ADDRESS,
+)
+
+
+def main(since_days: int) -> None:
+    since = timedelta(days=since_days)
+    ofv_challenger_accuracy = reality_accuracy(OFV_CHALLENGER_SAFE_ADDRESS, since)
+    olas_accuracies = {
+        addr: reality_accuracy(addr, since) for addr in MARKET_CREATORS_TO_CHALLENGE
+    }
+
+    print(
+        f"OFVChallenger accuracy: {ofv_challenger_accuracy.accuracy*100:.2f}% out of {ofv_challenger_accuracy.total}"
+    )
+    for idx, accuracy_report in enumerate(olas_accuracies.values()):
+        if accuracy_report.total:
+            print(
+                f"Olas {idx} accuracy: {accuracy_report.accuracy*100:.2f}% out of {accuracy_report.total}"
+            )
+        else:
+            print(f"Olas {idx} accuracy: no answers found")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    typer.run(main)