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Expand betting strategy of all agents (Omen) #280

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gabrielfior opened this issue Jun 26, 2024 · 4 comments
Closed

Expand betting strategy of all agents (Omen) #280

gabrielfior opened this issue Jun 26, 2024 · 4 comments

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@gabrielfior
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Currently the agents (https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling/blob/ceb4304149e94c6f284e1cea38273d0f53dfe37f/prediction_market_agent_tooling/deploy/agent.py#L222) can place N bets on a given market, regardless of how the market is looking like - it only does not do so if market is closed and/or market has no liquidity (https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling/blob/ceb4304149e94c6f284e1cea38273d0f53dfe37f/prediction_market_agent_tooling/markets/omen/omen.py#L142).

Also very relevant for placing a bet is the probability with which the market prices the prediction vs the confidence the agent has in the prediction. E.g. if the market prices Trump to win election with 80% and we have a 85% confidence in that prediction, there is payoff P1 ; if instead market prices Trump at 40%, our payoff is P2, and P2 >> P1.
This issue addresses the above logic.

@kongzii
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kongzii commented Jun 26, 2024

Is this the same thing as you meant to do in #56 ?

@evangriffiths
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evangriffiths commented Jun 26, 2024

We do have these betting strategies in PMAT that we could give the agent as Tools to choose from https://github.com/gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling/tree/main/prediction_market_agent_tooling/tools/betting_strategies

@evangriffiths
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Closing, as duplicate of #280

@kongzii
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kongzii commented Sep 19, 2024

This is duplicate of gnosis/prediction-market-agent-tooling#365, right?

@kongzii kongzii closed this as completed Sep 19, 2024
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