Added LLM call as a way to save Tavily credits

prediction_market_agent/agents/known_outcome_agent/deploy.py

@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@
 from prediction_market_agent.agents.known_outcome_agent.known_outcome_agent import (
     Result,
     get_known_outcome,
+    has_question_event_happened_in_the_past,
 )
 
 
@@ -36,7 +37,11 @@ def pick_markets(self, markets: list[AgentMarket]) -> list[AgentMarket]:
             # Assume very high probability markets are already known, and have
             # been correctly bet on, and therefore the value of betting on them
             # is low.
-            if not market_is_saturated(market=market):
+            if not market_is_saturated(
+                market=market
+            ) and has_question_event_happened_in_the_past(
+                model=self.model, question=market.question
+            ):
                 answer = get_known_outcome(
                     model=self.model,
                     question=market.question,

prediction_market_agent/agents/known_outcome_agent/known_outcome_agent.py

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 
 from langchain.prompts import ChatPromptTemplate
 from langchain_openai import ChatOpenAI
+from prediction_market_agent_tooling.tools.utils import utcnow
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 
 from prediction_market_agent.tools.web_scrape.basic_summary import _summary
@@ -42,6 +43,22 @@ def has_known_outcome(self) -> bool:
         return self.result is not Result.UNKNOWN
 
 
+HAS_QUESTION_HAPPENED_IN_THE_PAST_PROMPT = """
+The current date is {date_str}. Your goal is to assert if a QUESTION references an event that is already finished (according to the current date and time) or if it will still take place in a later date. 
+
+For example, you should return 1 if given the event "Will Bitcoin have reached the price of $100 by 30 March 2023?", since the event ends on a data prior to the current date.
+
+Your answer MUST be an integer and follow the logic below:
+- If the event is already finished, return 1
+- If the event has not yet finished, return 0
+- If you are not sure, return -1
+
+Answer with the single 1, 0 or -1 only, and nothing else.
+
+[QUESTION]
+"{question}"
+"""
+
 GENERATE_SEARCH_QUERY_PROMPT = """
 The current date is {date_str}. You are trying to determine whether the answer
 to the following question has a definite answer. Generate a web search query
@@ -138,6 +155,29 @@ def summarize_if_required(content: str, model: str, question: str) -> str:
         return content
 
 
+def has_question_event_happened_in_the_past(model: str, question: str) -> bool:
+    """Asks the model if the event referenced by the question has finished (given the
+    current date) (returning 1), if the event has not yet finished (returning 0) or
+     if it cannot be sure (returning -1)."""
+    date_str = utcnow().strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S %Z")
+    llm = ChatOpenAI(model=model, temperature=0.0)
+    prompt = ChatPromptTemplate.from_template(
+        template=HAS_QUESTION_HAPPENED_IN_THE_PAST_PROMPT
+    ).format_messages(
+        date_str=date_str,
+        question=question,
+    )
+    answer = str(llm.invoke(prompt).content)
+    try:
+        parsed_answer = int(answer)
+        if parsed_answer == 1:
+            return True
+    except Exception as e:
+        print("Exception occured, cannot assert if title happened in the past. ", e)
+
+    return False
+
+
 def get_known_outcome(model: str, question: str, max_tries: int) -> Answer:
     """
     In a loop, perform web search and scrape to find if the answer to the