In the latest version of my deluxe (baseline + polls + enthusiasm + fundamentals), Kamala Harris has a 68% chance of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Her median EV count is 300-238.
In the lite version (baseline + polls), Harris has a 55% chance of winning. Her median EV count is 301-237.
Explore the models yourself below! A detailed methodology write-up is coming soon to this page.