This study evaluates a comprehensive general epidemic model [1] by applying it to three distinct disease outbreaks: the 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar [2], a 2013 Norovirus outbreak in Jiangsu [3], and the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. We evaluate that the general model captures the dynamics of these diverse diseases reasonably well, demonstrating its broad applicability despite omitting specific disease characteristics. However, challenges remain, particularly in the necessity of certain compartments and the reliance on extensive parameter calibration. These issues highlight the need for advanced fitting methods and new comparison metrics. Future research should focus on refining the model, developing protocols for practical application, and enhancing its adaptability to emerging diseases, ensuring it can effectively guide public health interventions. All code and data relevant for the model parameter fitting can be found in this repository.
main references include: [1] C. Sticha, F. Picasso, C. Kuttler, M. Hoelscher, A. Wieser, and N. Castelletti, “A general deterministic model of ordinary differential equations for a broad variety of different diseases,” 2024.
[2] V. K. Nguyen, C. Parra-Rojas, and E. A. Hernandez-Vargas, “The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: Data descriptions and epidemic modelling,” Epidemics, vol. 25, pp. 20–25, 2018.
[3] J. Wang, J. Rui, Y. Zhu, X. Guo, B. Abudunaibi, B. Zhao, Y. Su, T. Chen, and J. Hu, “Evaluation of the transmissibility of norovirus and the effectiveness of prevention and control measures for schools in jiangsu province,” Annals of Medicine, vol. 55, no. 2, p. 2246474, 2023.
[4] M. V. Barbarossa, A. Dénes, G. Kiss, Y. Nakata, G. Röst, and Z. Vizi, “Transmission dynamics and final epidemic size of ebola virus disease outbreaks with varying interventions,” PLOS ONE, vol. 10, p. e0131398, July 2015