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Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
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date: 2024-08-03T09:29:16+10:00 | ||
title: "Constraints imply limited future weakening of AMOC" | ||
heroHeading: '' | ||
heroSubHeading: 'Constraints imply limited future weakening of AMOC' | ||
heroBackground: '' | ||
thumbnail: 'images/publications/btsz_2024.png' | ||
images: ['images/publications/btsz_2024.png'] | ||
link: 'https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-4456168/v1' | ||
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Climate models show varied predictions for the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) this century. Researchers, including **Laure Zanna** and CliMA members, reduced this uncertainty by linking AMOC strength to the meridional density difference and overturning depth. They found that models with a deeper present-day overturning predict greater weakening due to less stratified North Atlantic waters. Using observational data, they estimate a modest AMOC weakening of about 4 Sv by century's end, regardless of emissions. The [study](https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-4456168/v1) highlights that inaccuracies in current ocean stratification models lead to exaggerated predictions of AMOC weakening. |
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date: 2024-08-02T09:29:16+10:00 | ||
title: "Bringing Statistics to Storylines!" | ||
heroHeading: '' | ||
heroSubHeading: 'Rare Event Sampling for Sudden, Transient Extreme Events' | ||
heroBackground: '' | ||
thumbnail: 'images/news/2408Gorman.png' | ||
images: ['images/news/2408Gorman.png'] | ||
link: 'https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024MS004264' | ||
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Accurately modeling extreme weather events is a major goal in climate science and weather risk management. High-resolution computational models provide precise data but are costly for capturing rare events. This [study](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024MS004264) focuses on localized, short-lived events like heavy precipitation. The researchers, including **Paul O’Gorman**, developed a more efficient method for sampling these events by combining adaptive multilevel splitting (AMS) and “ensemble boosting.” The new approach, tested on the Lorenz-96 model, improved the sampling of extreme events by a factor of 10. This method helps efficiently simulate sudden, transient weather extremes, advancing efforts to model these events in atmospheric models. |
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