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<h1 class="display-4 secondfont mb-3 font-weight-bold">Circumventing Sanctions - Russia and
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The ever-rapidly changing scope of geopolitics and international economics.
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<small class="ml-2">Dave Moleske <span class="text-muted d-block">March 11 ·
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The most important event of the 2022 Olympic Games did not occur on the alpine slopes,
backcountry ski course, or ice rinks; but in conference rooms in the Chinese foreign ministry
offices in central Beijing. On February 4th, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping held their first
in-person meeting since the beginning of Covid-19 and further discussed the ever-rapidly
changing scope of geopolitics and international economics. The meeting culminated in the release
of a 5,000 word joint statement declaring a ‘‘New Era’’ of global power distribution and shift
away from a singular global hegemon to a ‘‘multipolar’’ world. One of the key aspects of the
statement was defining the two sides of the new cold war; Russia and China vs US and its Western
allies.
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The conflict in Ukraine just expedited the friendship in the East.
Beijing and Moscow in the statement jointly wrote that together they would “promote the expanded
cooperation in three main areas:” economy and finance, politics and security, and humanitarian
exchanges. The Russian invasion of Ukraine may prove to be the geopolitical catalyst that
eventually merges the two states into the premier alliance of the 21st century. The
Russia-Ukraine crisis has resulted in Western countries implementing harsh sanctions against
Russia. The most significant facet of the sanctions package is the exclusion of Russian banks
from the SWIFT financial messaging system dominated by the US.
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SWIFT is backed by the dollar, and connects more than 11,000 financial institutions in more than
200 countries and territories making exclusion from the system the nuclear option of economic
statecraft.
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<p>
The domestic Russian alternative to Swift is <a
href="https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/spfs-russia-s-alternative-to-swift.html/">SPFS
(System for Transfer of Financial Messages)</a>.
SPFS was created by the Central Bank of Russia in 2014 following the Ukrainian Euromaidan events
which culminated in the Western-backed coup d'etat of the president of Ukraine, Viktor
Yanukovych. Russia then annexed Crimea and the US and its allies threatened harsh sanctions
including the removal of Russia from Swift. Eight years later the West delivered on their
threats and barred some Russian banks from the system and likely will restrict more in the near
future. The Russian SPFS connects hundreds of Russian banks in conjunction with one another
however outside Russia’s border SPFS breaks down. <a
href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/12/14/belarus-banks-readying-for-swift-shutdown-reports-a75808">Belarus</a>
has begun connecting
its banks to SPFS
and is seeking further integration into the system but as of now; SPFS does not effectively
function at the international level.
</p>
<p>The Chinese alternative to SWIFT: CIPS (Cross-Border International Payment System) functions at
the international level, unlike SPFS, and its goal is to internationalize the yuan. <a
href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3168684/what-chinas-swift-equivalent-and-could-it-help-beijing-reduce">CIPS
has
over 1,200 financial institutions</a> in over 100 countries connected and one of the key
developments of the Belt and Road initiative. Beijing hopes the yuan-backed CIPS will rival the
dollar-backed SWIFT.
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<p>
CIPS will soon have a multitude of Russian banks seeking to become members; their acceptance
into the system will be the first significant agreement since the release of the joint statement
during the Olympics and advances their shared economic and financial goals expressed in the
5,000 word quasi manifesto. The economic alliance that has formed between Russia and China will
grow much stronger once they integrate CIPS and SPFS with each other.
</p>
<p>
The successful integration of Russia and SPFS into China and CIPS will not occur in a vacuum and
once the two states merge their systems more states will look at CIPS and view it as not just an
alternative to SWIFT but rather the financial messaging system that will surpass SWIFT.
</p>
<p>
The US has used its power to veto states from SWIFT since the system was created in 1973 and has
devastated countries economically. <a
href="https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-sanctions/sanctions-programs-and-country-information">The
US has imposed maximum pressure sanctions on Iran, North
Korea, Cuba, Venezuela, and many more over the decades</a> and the joint declaration
exemplifies
the
push to soften US sanctions through this Sino-Russian alternative. This will allow states
sanctioned by the United States to further join the world economy as a legitimate partners,
and
allow BRI members to further integrate their economies allowing them to circumvent US
sanctions
and SWIFT removal. The integration of Russia into CIPS could prove to be the premier facet
of
the New Silk Road and be the first step of economic integration of the global south.
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