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index.tex
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\title{2023 TAMPA BAY REASONABLE ASSURANCE COMPLIANCE ASSESSMENT REPORT}
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\chapter{The Tampa Bay Nitrogen Management Consortium Partnership for
Progress}\label{the-tampa-bay-nitrogen-management-consortium-partnership-for-progress}
\includegraphics{www/header.png}
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\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{TO:}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Adam\ Blalock,\ FDEP}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Daniel\ Blackman,\ US\ EPA\ Region\ 4}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{FROM:}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Ed\ Sherwood,\ TBEP\ Executive\ Director\ (NMC\ Facilitator)}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{DATE:}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Jan.\ 19,\ 2024}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{SUBJECT:}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{2023\ Tampa\ Bay\ Nutrient\ Management\ Compliance\ Assessment\ Results}}} \\
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\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{Ramandeep\ Kaur,\ Jorge\ Perez,\ Lance\ Kautz,\ Jessica\ Pein,\ Erica\ Peck\ (FDEP\ Tampa)}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{Jeaneanne\ M.\ Gettle,\ Wade\ Lehmann,\ Cindy\ Barger,\ Nancy\ Laurson,\ Felicia\ Burks,\ Tom\ McGill\ (EPA\ Region\ 4/HQ)}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{Jeff\ Greenwell,\ Santino\ Provenzano\ (TBNMC)}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{636363}{\fontsize{11}{11}\selectfont{Ed\ Sherwood,\ Maya\ Burke,\ Marcus\ Beck\ (TBEP)}}} \\
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Source content:
\href{https://github.com/tbep-tech/tbnmc-compliance-assessment-2023}{here}
On behalf of the Tampa Bay Nitrogen Management Consortium, please find
attached the 2023 update on water quality and seagrass resources in the
Tampa Bay estuary. This update has been developed in accordance with the
compliance assessment adopted through
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wV3w8ack_fLNK3yS-xTR7LTmziNtZ8CN/view?usp=share_link}{FDEP's
Tampa Bay Reasonable Assurance determination on December 22, 2010},
FDEP's subsequent
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IIloBN5RoZPB6vgWzEjmMQyFjFL3fq0Y/view?usp=share_link}{approval}
of the
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/18HHMx4U6vHNrFyepEFuoTJ_sEKyTA_gu/view}{2022
RA Update}, and the
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/18_W1qKT2I0j9m0mLC7wWjndSNR-0iWEF/view?usp=share_link}{federally-recognized
TMDL for Tampa Bay}. The formal annual compliance assessment utilized by
the Consortium is detailed in Section VIII.B of the
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/10IjJAfcGFf007a5VdPXAUtUi4dx-cmsA/view}{Final
2009 Reasonable Assurance Addendum: Allocation and Assessment Report}.
Chlorophyll-a concentrations for all four major bay segments were below
FDEP-approved numeric nutrient criteria thresholds in 2023.
Additionally, concentrations for the Remainder Lower Tampa Bay segment
that includes Boca Ciega Bay South, Terra Ceia Bay, and Manatee River
were also below the criteria. The approved chlorophyll-a thresholds were
adopted as part of FDEP's 2002 Reasonable Assurance determination for
Tampa Bay, and, at that time, it was determined that Tampa Bay's
seagrass restoration goals could be achieved if annual, uncorrected
chlorophyll-a concentrations remained below these thresholds. If a bay
segment's chlorophyll-a concentration remains above thresholds for 2
concurrent years, additional compliance assessment steps are required by
the Consortium. This nutrient management strategy has been consistently
used by the TBEP and Consortium in their Annual Decision Matrix and
Assessment reports (Beck, Burke, and Sherwood 2024).
Seagrass coverage in Tampa Bay decreased between 2020 and 2022, prior to
the reported chlorophyll-a conditions detailed above. The Southwest
Florida Water Management District's (SWFWMD) 2022 baywide seagrass
coverage estimate is 30,137 acres, remaining below the baywide target of
40,000 acres (Figure~\ref{fig-seagrass}). The 2022 estimate marks the
third consecutive reporting period with a reduction of seagrass coverage
in Tampa Bay. Losses were primarily observed in upper bay segments and
additional research, assimilative capacity assessments, and restoration
initiatives are being conducted in response to these trends.
Notwithstanding these setbacks, the Consortium's approved nutrient
management strategy is still required to adaptively manage and address
nutrient loading to the Tampa Bay estuary. For all Tampa Bay segments,
water quality remained supportive of seagrass resources in 2023, though
baywide seagrass losses continue to be examined. Annual
\href{https://shiny.tbep.org/seagrasstransect-dash}{seagrass transect
surveys} in 2023 suggest a slight increase in total frequency occurrence
since 2021, although rainfall has been below annual averages and the
TBEP remains cautiously optimistic that these trends will continue in
future years.
Thank you again for your continued participation in the Consortium's
process. Please contact Ed Sherwood
(\href{mailto:esherwood@tbep.org}{\nolinkurl{esherwood@tbep.org}}) with
any questions about the Consortium's Annual Compliance Assessment.
\bookmarksetup{startatroot}
\chapter{2023 Tampa Bay Estuary Nutrient Management Compliance
Assessment}\label{tampa-bay-estuary-nutrient-management-compliance-assessment}
On December 22, 2010, then FDEP Secretary Drew signed a
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wV3w8ack_fLNK3yS-xTR7LTmziNtZ8CN/view?usp=share_link}{Final
Order} accepting and approving the
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/10IjJAfcGFf007a5VdPXAUtUi4dx-cmsA/view?usp=drivesdk}{2009
Reasonable Assurance} Addendum for the Tampa Bay estuary. The final
order found that the Nitrogen Management Consortium (NMC) provided FDEP
reasonable assurance that: 1) completed and proposed management actions
in the 2009 RA Addendum will result in the continued attainment of the
estuarine nutrient criteria within Tampa Bay, and 2) compliance with the
allocations in the 2009 RA Addendum ensures reasonable progress towards
continued attainment of the estuarine nutrient criteria and associated
Class III designated uses. Furthermore, the FDEP finalized a WQBEL for
the Tampa Bay estuary in accordance with the allocations developed under
the 2009 RA Addendum in November 2010. The Consortium completed
subsequent RA Updates in
\href{https://tbep.org/reasonable-assurance-plans-updates-2012/}{2012},
\href{https://tbep.org/reasonable-assurance-plans-updates-2017/}{2017},
and
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/18HHMx4U6vHNrFyepEFuoTJ_sEKyTA_gu/view?usp=share_link}{2022}
maintaining allocations and expanding upon projects originally defined
in the
\href{https://tbep.org/reasonable-assurance-plans-updates-2002/}{2002 RA
Submittal},
\href{https://tbep.org/reasonable-assurance-plans-updates-2007/}{2007 RA
Update},
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/10IjJAfcGFf007a5VdPXAUtUi4dx-cmsA/view?usp=drivesdk}{2009
RA Addendum},
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F_QmQcvGVQ78wK3jcMLMGmjs1vJ21nto/view?usp=share_link}{2012
RA Update},
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VdYE67_aZAhFq6JYQSKxx2WY2O5KwyUI/view?usp=share_link}{2017
RA Update} and
\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/18HHMx4U6vHNrFyepEFuoTJ_sEKyTA_gu/view?usp=share_link}{2022
RA Update}.
As part of the compliance assessment stipulated under the 2009 RA
Addendum, the NMC committed to annually assess the water quality and
seagrass conditions within Tampa Bay and annually report these to FDEP
and EPA. The Consortium's assessment responsibilities are shown in green
in Figure~\ref{fig-decision}. It should be noted that the Consortium's
reasonable assurance assessment strategy begins with the observation of
water quality conditions in the bay for a particular year. As is
recommended in numerous EPA guidance documents for the development of
numeric nutrient criteria, the Consortium's assessment strategy attempts
to apply a stressor-response rationale for the determination of nitrogen
load allocation reasonable assurance in the estuary.
\begin{figure}
\centering{
\includegraphics[width=0.7\textwidth,height=\textheight]{www/decisionframework.png}
}
\caption{\label{fig-decision}Nitrogen Management Consortium decision
framework to assess future reasonable assurance of adopted allocations.
Actions and steps to be conducted by the NMC are shown in the circles
and diamonds. Steps, decision points, and actions are outlined in
Table~\ref{tbl-steps} (below) according to the Roman numerals listed in
the figure.}
\end{figure}%
The framework is applied on a bay-segment basis, and is predicated on
assessing annual attainment of the bay segment chlorophyll-a
concentration threshold as the initial step. If the bay segment-specific
chlorophyll-a threshold is met, the Consortium annually reports the
results to FDEP and EPA and additional assessment steps are not required
by the Consortium (by June of the following year). If annual average
chlorophyll-a thresholds are not met in one or more bay segments,
additional assessment steps are required by the Consortium as noted in
the framework and assessment process (Figure~\ref{fig-decision},
Table~\ref{tbl-steps}).
Regardless of the assessment results, the Consortium will annually
report (by June of the following year) whether the bay segment specific
chlorophyll-a thresholds are met using the Environmental Protection
Commission of Hillsborough County (EPCHC) dataset, as traditionally
assessed using the ``Decision Matrix'' management strategy developed by
the TBEP (Janicki, Wade, and Pribble 2000) and will deliver this to FDEP
and EPA (Figure~\ref{fig-decision}; NMC Action 1 in the Framework).
Additional data from Pinellas and Manatee County are used to determine
if chlorophyll thresholds in the Remainder Lower Tampa Bay segment (Boca
Ciega Bay South, Terra Ceia Bay, and Manatee River) are met in these
areas. If an annual, individual exceedence of a bay segment
chlorophyll-a threshold is observed, an addendum report outlining the
anomalous event(s) or data which influenced the bay segment
chlorophyll-a exceedence will be delivered to FDEP and EPA upon review
by NMC participants by September of the following year
(Figure~\ref{fig-decision}; NMC Action 2 in the Framework). An
evaluation of the bay segment assimilative capacity (i.e.~revision to
the federally-recognized TMDL) is formally considered (if not already
considered by the NMC) when bay segment chlorophyll-a thresholds are not
met in 2 concurrent years, and hydrologically normalized loads for those
years meet the federally-recognized TMDL (Figure~\ref{fig-decision}; NMC
Action 3 in the Framework). This was the case for the Old Tampa Bay
segment during the 2019-2021 period and an assimilative capacity
assessment is being conducted in 2024. Alternatively, when bay segment
chlorophyll-a thresholds are not met in 2 concurrent years and
hydrologically normalized loads for those years also do not meet the
federally-recognized TMDL, the Consortium will deliver a full loading
report to FDEP and EPA comparing the observed, combined entity/source
annual or multiple year loadings to the sources' 5-yr annual average
allocation by September of the following year. This report will identify
any exceedences among combined entity/source load categories after
taking into consideration ``set allocation'' sources and
hydrologically-normalized sources, and if necessary, whether exceedences
were observed for individual MS4 or unpermitted (LA) sources
(Figure~\ref{fig-decision}; NMC Action 4 in the Framework). It is noted
that FDEP will independently assess individual entities for compliance
with their allocations.
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\begin{longtable}[c]{|p{3.50in}|p{1.50in}|p{1.50in}}
\caption{\label{tbl-steps}Assessment steps linked to the Nitrogen
Management Consortium's decision framework, as depicted in the flowchart
above.}
\tabularnewline
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\multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\raggedright}m{\dimexpr 3.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{V.}}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{For}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{a}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{given}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{year}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{or}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{for}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{multiple}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{years,}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{compile}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{and}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{report}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{entity-specific}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{combined}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{source}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{loads}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{in}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{comparison}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{to}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{5-yr}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{annual}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{average}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{reasonable}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{assurance}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{allocation.}}} & \multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\centering}m{\dimexpr 1.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{Compile}}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{\ }}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{\&}}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{\ }}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{Report}}}} & \multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\centering}m{\dimexpr 1.5in+0\tabcolsep}!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{NMC}}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{\ }}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{Action}}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{\ }}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\textbf{4}}}} \\
\ascline{1pt}{666666}{1-3}
\end{longtable}
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NMC actions outlined in Figure~\ref{fig-decision} and
Table~\ref{tbl-steps} performed during RA Implementation Period
(2022-2026) are as follows:
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\begin{longtable*}[l]{|p{1.50in}|p{5.00in}}
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{NMC}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Action}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{1}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{-}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{A}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{report}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{assessing}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{attainment}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{of}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{bay}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{segment}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{specific}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{chlorophyll-a}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{thresholds}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{using}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{the}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{EPCHC}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{dataset,}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{as}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{traditionally}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{assessed}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{using}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{the}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Decision}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Matrix}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{management}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{strategy}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{developed}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{by}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{the}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{TBEP}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{(Janicki,}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Wade,}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{and}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Pribble}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{2000)}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{will}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{be}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{delivered}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{to}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{FDEP}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{and}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{EPA}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{(this}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{report).}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{NMC}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Action}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{2}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{-}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{A}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{report}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{of}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{the}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{anomalous}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{event(s)}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{or}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{data}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{which}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{influenced}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{the}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{bay}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{segment}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{chlorophyll-a}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{exceedence}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{will}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{be}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{delivered}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{to}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{FDEP}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{and}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{EPA,}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{upon}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{review}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{by}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{NMC}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{participants}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{(this}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{report).}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{NMC}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Action}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{3}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{-}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Consider}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{re-evaluation}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{of}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{the}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{bay}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{segment}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{assimilative}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{capacity}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{based}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{on}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{nonattainment}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{of}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{bay}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{segment}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{chlorophyll-a}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{threshold}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{while}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{meeting}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{federally-recognized}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{TMDL.}}} \\
\multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 1.5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{NMC}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Action}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{4}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{-}}} & \multicolumn{1}{>{\raggedright}p{\dimexpr 5in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{If}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{federally-recognized}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{TMDL}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{not}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{achieved,}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{compile}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{results}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{of}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{hydrologic}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{evaluation}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{for}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{FDEP’s}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{review}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{and}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{identify}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{potential}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{further}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{actions}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{needed}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{to}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{achieve}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{reasonable}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{assurance}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{for}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{bay}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{segment}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{allocations.}}} \\
\end{longtable*}
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\bookmarksetup{startatroot}
\chapter{2023 Results Summary}\label{results-summary}
Results from 2023 indicate that all RA bay segments met chlorophyll-a
thresholds accepted by the FDEP to maintain FDEP Reasonable Assurance
for Tampa Bay and to comply with the EPA TMDL (Figure~\ref{fig-thrplot})
and estuarine numeric nutrient criteria for Tampa Bay
(\href{https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2015-04/documents/florida-amended-determination.pdf}{EPA
Amended Approval Letter Jun.~28, 2013}). During the previous RA period
(2017-2021), Old Tampa Bay exceeded the chlorophyll-a threshold for four
of the five years. While the chlorophyll-a threshold was met in Old
Tampa Bay for the 2022 and 2023 annual assessment periods, water quality
conditions in this bay segment remain a priority concern for the
Consortium. Chlorophyll-a concentrations are typically elevated in a
poorly flushed region that has produced summertime blooms of
\emph{Pyrodinium bahamense} since 2009 (Figure~\ref{fig-sitemap};
\emph{Note that individual station exceedences are not considered in
this RA compliance assessment}). This observation is reflected in the
majority of summertime months with chlorophyll-a concentrations higher
than long-term median values in Old Tampa Bay, although this was not
observed in 2022 or 2023 (Figure~\ref{fig-boxplot}). To address these
water quality problems, the Consortium formed an Old Tampa Bay Working
Group in early 2020 to prioritize additional investigations and future
management actions that may alleviate the conditions fostering these
summertime blooms. Additionally, the TBEP received funding from a NOAA
Restore Actionable Science grant in 2021 to develop a research
management plan for identifying potential actions to improve water
quality conditions in Old Tampa Bay (Lopez et al. 2023). An assimilative
capacity study for Old Tampa Bay will also be pursued in 2024 to
evaluate the existing management paradigm and assess the potential need
to adopt alternative indicators and/or load allocations to address
recurring water quality issues in that bay segment.
The TBEP, in partnership with the Southwest Florida Water Management
District, has previously developed an integrated ecosystem model to
evaluate the net environmental benefits that may result from
implementing various management actions in Old Tampa Bay including:
reducing point sources, nonpoint sources, and causeway obstructions in
Old Tampa Bay (Sherwood et al. 2015). Management actions that proximate
and respond to current Old Tampa Bay conditions will be further
evaluated using this model. Furthermore, the TBEP funded research
conducted by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute to improve
understanding of the cell physiology and behavior of \emph{Pyrodinium
bahamense} and evaluate the potential for using shellfish to mitigate
these algal blooms in Old Tampa Bay. A water quality dashboard
(\url{https://shiny.tbep.org/wq-dash}) continues to be available to
further synthesize available data, assess additional water quality
metrics (phytoplankton counts), and inform Consortium participants and
other resource managers on the status of water quality in Tampa Bay. The
dashboard allows for proactive response to anomalous water quality
conditions on a month-to-month basis by the community. Potential
modifications to existing modeling tools and the proposal of additional
models will be explored under the Old Tampa Bay assimilative capacity
assessment study in 2024.
Seagrasses were relatively stable in much of Lower to Middle Tampa Bay;
however, additional declines to the ephemeral seagrass beds in upper
Tampa Bay were observed between 2020 and 2022. Aerial photographs taken
in December 2021 - January 2022 indicated that baywide seagrass coverage
decreased by 4,160 acres, marking the third consecutive biennial
reporting period with seagrass declines. Seagrass acreage showed the
greatest decreases in Old Tampa Bay (-4,041 acres from 2018 - 2020,
-2,518 acres from 2020 - 2022) and Hillsborough Bay (-627 acres from
2018 - 2020, -428 acres from 2020 - 2022). Notably, the coverage
estimate for Old Tampa Bay was 4,183 acres in 2022, the lowest estimate
ever recorded for that bay segment. The three major southwest Florida
estuaries experienced reductions in estimated seagrass coverage between
2020 and 2022, with the most pronounced losses occurring in Tampa Bay.
Additional research and discussion is being pursued by the Southwest
Florida Seagrass Working Group to better understand the underlying
mechanisms influencing these observations. The next SWFWMD seagrass
coverage estimate will be developed from aerial photographs acquired
over the winter 2023-24 period. Despite the documented baywide decline
in seagrass coverage shown by the SWFWMD data, the previous two years of
annual transect surveys conducted by TBEP and its partners have shown a
slight increase in total frequency occurrence from 2021 to 2023 (shown
in the \href{https://shiny.tbep.org/seagrasstransect-dash}{seagrass
transect dashboard}). Although lower stormwater nutrient loads from
lower than average summer rainfall may have contributed to this
increase, the TBEP is cautiously optimistic that these increases will
continue in future years. Finally, the role of long-term temperature
increases and salinity reductions related to climate change and the
potential relationships with seagrass declines since 2016 are being
explored. The results of this work will likely be published in early
2024.
Detailed results for the 2022-2026 RA implementation period are provided
in Tables \ref{tbl-raotb}, \ref{tbl-rahb}, \ref{tbl-ramtb},
\ref{tbl-raltb}, and \ref{tbl-raraltb} for each bay segment. Notably,
results for the Remainder Lower Tampa Bay segment (Boca Ciega Bay South,
Terra Ceia Bay, Manatee River) are included for the first time in this
annual assessment. As of the 2023 reporting period, NMC Actions 2-5 are
not necessary based upon observed water quality conditions within Tampa
Bay, though additional work is being pursued by the TBEP and TBNMC to
understand the most recent trends in seagrass coverage and Old Tampa
Bay's current assimilative capacity. Individual annual reports of the
bay's conditions from 2023 can be found on the TBEP website, as
specified in the following link (Beck, Burke, and Sherwood 2024) and the
\href{https://shiny.tbep.org/wq-dash}{water quality dashboard}. A
summary of historic attainment of the regulatory chlorophyll-a
thresholds for each of the bay segments is depicted in
Figure~\ref{fig-chlmat}.
Lastly, annual hydrologic conditions within two of the major bay
segments in 2023 were below 1992-1994 levels (Table~\ref{tbl-hydrotab}).
Therefore, hydrologic adjustments for evaluating compliance with
individual entity load allocations/permitting targets should be applied
for the Middle Tampa Bay and Lower Tampa Bay segments (Janicki
Environmental, Inc. 2012, 2016). The estimated hydrologic loads for each
bay segment relative to observed 1992-1994 levels are indicated in the
table below. The estimated compliance load adjustment factors (if
applicable) are also specified. A tool to calculate the hydrologic
estimates and adjustment factors by bay segment is available online
through an interactive dashboard and automatically updated as
provisional hydrologic estimates are approved by monitoring agencies
(\url{https://shiny.tbep.org/tbnmc_hydrologic_estimates/}).
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\caption{\label{tbl-hydrotab}Hydrologic load estimates in 2023 relative
to 1992-1994 levels and estimated compliance load adjustment factors for
the major bay segments.}
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\begin{figure}
\centering{
\includegraphics{summary_files/figure-pdf/fig-thrplot-1.pdf}
}
\caption{\label{fig-thrplot}Historic chlorophyll-a annual averages for
the four major bay segments of Tampa Bay and those that include the
Remainder Lower Tampa Bay segment (Boca Ciega Bay South, Terra Ceia Bay,
Manatee River). Annual averages in 2023 were below the regulatory
thresholds developed under the Tampa Nitrogen Management Consortium's
nutrient management strategy in all bay segments. Vertical grey bars
indicate the portion of the 2022-2026 Reasonable Assurance compliance
assessment period covered by the results.}
\end{figure}%
\begin{figure}
\centering{
\includegraphics[width=0.7\textwidth,height=\textheight]{summary_files/figure-pdf/fig-sitemap-1.pdf}
}
\caption{\label{fig-sitemap}Map depicting individual station
chlorophyll-a exceedences in Tampa Bay relative to FDEP regulatory
thresholds for chlorophyll-a in 2023. \emph{Note individual station
exceedences do not indicate failed compliance at the bay segment
scale.}}
\end{figure}%
\begin{figure}
\centering{
\includegraphics{summary_files/figure-pdf/fig-boxplot-1.pdf}
}
\caption{\label{fig-boxplot}2023 monthly chlorophyll-a bay segment means
(red dots) compared to monthly distributions from prior years (box plots
and black dots). Prior years extend to 1975 for Old Tampa Bay,
Hillsborough Bay, Middle Tampa Bay, and Lower Tampa Bay, 1991 for Boca
Ciega Bay South, 1989 for Terra Ceia Bay, and 1990 for Manatee River.
Note that Pinellas and Manatee County data are used for Boca Ciega Bay
South, Terra Ceia Bay, and Manatee River and has less frequent sampling
intervals than data from the Environmental Protection Commission of
Hillsborough County used for the other bay segments. Boxes encompass the
25th and 75th percentiles, while whiskers bound the interquartile range.
Dots beyond the whiskers represent outliers throughout the 1975-2022
sample period.}
\end{figure}%
\begin{figure}
\centering{
\includegraphics[width=0.9\textwidth,height=\textheight]{summary_files/figure-pdf/fig-seagrass-1.pdf}
}
\caption{\label{fig-seagrass}Historic seagrass coverage estimates for
Tampa Bay. The target coverage of 38,000 acres was changed to 40,000
acres in 2020 to reflect programmatic goals in the 2020 Habitat Master
Plan Update
(\href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Hp0l_qtbxp1JxKJoGatdyuANSzQrpL0I/view?usp=drivesdk}{TBEP
\#07-20}). Data source: TBEP \& SWFWMD.}
\end{figure}%
\begin{figure}
\centering{
\includegraphics[width=0.4\textwidth,height=\textheight]{summary_files/figure-pdf/fig-chlmat-1.pdf}
}
\caption{\label{fig-chlmat}Attainment of adopted chlorophyll-a
thresholds (1975 - 2023) in the four major bay segments and Remainder
Lower Tampa Bay segment (Boca Ciega Bay South, Terra Ceia Bay, Manatee
River). Green (yes) indicates that average annual chlorophyll-a
thresholds were met; red (no) indicates that threshold levels were not
met. Grey line is the beginning of the current Reasonable Assurance
implementation period.}
\end{figure}%
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\caption{\label{tbl-raotb}Demonstration of reasonable assurance
assessment steps for Old Tampa Bay. Green and red squares indicate
outcomes of decision points outlined in the Consortium's reasonable
assurance assessment framework.}
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\end{longtable}
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\begin{longtable}[c]{|p{2.00in}|p{0.60in}|p{0.60in}|p{0.60in}|p{0.60in}|p{0.60in}|p{1.50in}}
\caption{\label{tbl-rahb}Demonstration of reasonable assurance
assessment steps for Hillsborough Bay. Green and red squares indicate
outcomes of decision points outlined in the Consortium's reasonable
assurance assessment framework.}
\tabularnewline
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\multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\cellcolor[HTML]{ADD8E6}\centering}m{\dimexpr 2in+0\tabcolsep}}{\multirow[c]{-2}{*}{\parbox{2in}{\centering \textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Bay}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Segment}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Reasonable}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Assurance}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Assessment}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Steps}}}}} & \multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\cellcolor[HTML]{ADD8E6}\centering}m{\dimexpr 0.6in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Year}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{1}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{(2022)}}} & \multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\cellcolor[HTML]{ADD8E6}\centering}m{\dimexpr 0.6in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Year}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{2}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{(2023)}}} & \multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\cellcolor[HTML]{ADD8E6}\centering}m{\dimexpr 0.6in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Year}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{3}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{(2024)}}} & \multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\cellcolor[HTML]{ADD8E6}\centering}m{\dimexpr 0.6in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Year}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{4}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{(2025)}}} & \multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\cellcolor[HTML]{ADD8E6}\centering}m{\dimexpr 0.6in+0\tabcolsep}}{\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{Year}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{5}}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{\ }}\textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{(2026)}}} & \multicolumn{1}{!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}>{\cellcolor[HTML]{ADD8E6}\centering}m{\dimexpr 1.5in+0\tabcolsep}!{\color[HTML]{666666}\vrule width 1pt}}{\multirow[c]{-2}{*}{\parbox{1.5in}{\centering \textcolor[HTML]{000000}{\fontsize{13}{13}\selectfont{OUTCOME}}}}} \\