SARS CoV 2 and VOCs

In our ABM, we represent SARS-CoV-2 and its ability to infect and transmit within a population. Although we do not explicitly represent viral evolution during the simulation, we can incorporate the significant mutations that are found in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). We do this by introducing a new virus with altered characteristics that reflect changes found in VOCs. This allows for simultaneous transmission of multiple viruses in the simulation until a given virus becomes dominant.

Modeled VOCs

"Wildtype"

• shares characteristics with the dominant global strain prior to the emergence of classified VOCs

"VOC1"

• shares characteristics with the alpha (Pango: B.1.1.7), beta (Pango: B.1.351), and gamma (Pango: P.1) mutants
• we assume that VOC1 is 1.6x more infectious than wildtype
• we assume no change to pathogenicity

"VOC2"

• shares characteristics with the delta (Pango: B.1.617.2) mutant
• we assume that VOC2 is 1.6x more infectious than VOC1 (2.56x as infectious than wildtype)
• we assume no change to pathogenicity