README

azmet-qaqc

This repository contains code to generate a dataset for doing timeseries forecast-based quality assurance checks for AZMET meterological data. Daily resolution data is accessed via the azmetr R package. A timeseries model is fit to all but the last day of data and a forecast is made for the last day. This is then uploaded to a Posit Connect server and used downstream by a validation report.

Timeseries models are fit using a non-seasonal ARIMA model using a fourier terms to capture seasonality. The maximum order of the fourier terms (K) is estimated for each weather variable to minimize model AIC. An auto-ARIMA function is used for the non-seasonal ARIMA part of the model and the order of the coefficients $p$, $d$, and $q$ are estimated separately for each weather variable and each station.

This is done using the fable package with something like the following (pseudo-code):

for (i in 1:25) {
  fit <- df |> model(
    ARIMA( ~ pdq() + PDQ(0,0,0) + xreg(fourier(period = '1 year', K = i)))
  )
  fit_aicc <- fit$AICc
  if(fit_aicc < bestfit) {
    bestfit <- fit_aicc
  } else {
    return(fit)
  }
}

The maximum order of the Fourier series, the order of the ARIMA coefficients, and the estimates for the coefficients are only estimated once per year. Each day, the model is re-fit to new data (but not re-estimated) before being used to forecast.

A few variables are excluded from this validation because these timeseries models are inappropriate for them: wind_vector_dir is in polar coordinates, sol_rad_total and precip_total_mm because they are highly zero-inflated.

Reproducibility

This project uses renv for package management. When opening this repo as an RStudio Project for the first time, renv should automatically install itself and prompt you to run renv::restore() to install all package dependencies.

This project uses the targets package for workflow management. Run targets::tar_make() from the console to run the workflow and reproduce all results. To reproduce the last step that updates the forecast dataset “pin” on Connect, you’ll need to create a .Renviron file with

CONNECT_SERVER="https://viz.datascience.arizona.edu/"
CONNECT_API_KEY=<your API key>

And you must have permission to publish to that pin. Without this setup, other targets should still run and you can inspect results of each step with tar_read().

Targets workflow:

Attaching package: ‘arrow’

The following object is masked from ‘package:utils’:

timestamp

graph LR
  subgraph legend
    direction LR
    x0a52b03877696646([""Outdated""]):::outdated --- x7420bd9270f8d27d([""Up to date""]):::uptodate
    x7420bd9270f8d27d([""Up to date""]):::uptodate --- xbf4603d6c2c2ad6b([""Stem""]):::none
    xbf4603d6c2c2ad6b([""Stem""]):::none --- x70a5fa6bea6f298d[""Pattern""]:::none
    x70a5fa6bea6f298d[""Pattern""]:::none --- xf0bce276fe2b9d3e>""Function""]:::none
  end
  subgraph Graph
    direction LR
    x3d7b2a2ab5636113(["metadata_file"]):::uptodate --> xdfae9ea4e5207cef(["needs_qa_daily"]):::uptodate
    x06ab7116eed66f15>"needs_qa"]:::uptodate --> xdfae9ea4e5207cef(["needs_qa_daily"]):::uptodate
    xdfae9ea4e5207cef(["needs_qa_daily"]):::uptodate --> x601d3b0e7d261371(["forecast_qa_vars"]):::uptodate
    x1920bdb737e11d2e(["legacy_daily_file"]):::uptodate --> xff9b736edef41c8b(["legacy_daily"]):::uptodate
    x842666df821db265>"read_wrangle_hist"]:::uptodate --> xff9b736edef41c8b(["legacy_daily"]):::uptodate
    x6233d5fdb54d5242(["daily"]):::outdated --> xdd96ec4b0bb5ab6b["fc_daily"]:::outdated
    x4bc7352f98499683>"forecast_daily"]:::uptodate --> xdd96ec4b0bb5ab6b["fc_daily"]:::outdated
    x601d3b0e7d261371(["forecast_qa_vars"]):::uptodate --> xdd96ec4b0bb5ab6b["fc_daily"]:::outdated
    x4d3c4dcfeadc796d["models_daily"]:::uptodate --> xdd96ec4b0bb5ab6b["fc_daily"]:::outdated
    x601d3b0e7d261371(["forecast_qa_vars"]):::uptodate --> x0bb4ecca77d3d4a0["resid_daily"]:::uptodate
    x4d3c4dcfeadc796d["models_daily"]:::uptodate --> x0bb4ecca77d3d4a0["resid_daily"]:::uptodate
    x10e889bcd8b0fd60>"plot_tsresids"]:::uptodate --> x0bb4ecca77d3d4a0["resid_daily"]:::uptodate
    x6233d5fdb54d5242(["daily"]):::outdated --> x4d3c4dcfeadc796d["models_daily"]:::uptodate
    x1f5572089e80d919>"fit_model_daily"]:::uptodate --> x4d3c4dcfeadc796d["models_daily"]:::uptodate
    x601d3b0e7d261371(["forecast_qa_vars"]):::uptodate --> x4d3c4dcfeadc796d["models_daily"]:::uptodate
    xdd96ec4b0bb5ab6b["fc_daily"]:::outdated --> x8f5c47b9b7da7e75(["pin_fc"]):::outdated
    x82c22abbb211b5ee>"pin_forecast"]:::uptodate --> x8f5c47b9b7da7e75(["pin_fc"]):::outdated
    xff9b736edef41c8b(["legacy_daily"]):::uptodate --> x6233d5fdb54d5242(["daily"]):::outdated
    x8b3096a190996662>"update_daily_hist"]:::uptodate --> x6233d5fdb54d5242(["daily"]):::outdated
    x6e52cb0f1668cc22(["readme"]):::outdated --> x6e52cb0f1668cc22(["readme"]):::outdated
  end
  classDef outdated stroke:#000000,color:#000000,fill:#78B7C5;
  classDef uptodate stroke:#000000,color:#ffffff,fill:#354823;
  classDef none stroke:#000000,color:#000000,fill:#94a4ac;
  linkStyle 0 stroke-width:0px;
  linkStyle 1 stroke-width:0px;
  linkStyle 2 stroke-width:0px;
  linkStyle 3 stroke-width:0px;
  linkStyle 23 stroke-width:0px;

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Repo Structure

fs::dir_tree(recurse = 1)

.
├── R
│   ├── fit_model_daily.R
│   ├── forecast_daily.R
│   ├── needs_qa.R
│   ├── pin_forecast.R
│   ├── plot_tsresids.R
│   ├── read_wrangle_hist.R
│   └── update_daily_hist.R
├── README.md
├── README.qmd
├── README.rmarkdown
├── _targets
│   ├── meta
│   ├── objects
│   └── user
├── _targets.R
├── _targets_packages.R
├── azmet-qaqc.Rproj
├── data
│   ├── azmet-data-metadata.xlsx
│   └── daily_hist.csv
├── notes
│   ├── ARIMA.html
│   ├── ARIMA.qmd
│   ├── ARIMA_files
│   ├── QA-report.qmd
│   ├── azmet-qaqc.qmd
│   ├── gams.qmd
│   ├── references.bib
│   └── sliding-window.qmd
├── renv
│   ├── activate.R
│   ├── library
│   ├── sandbox
│   ├── settings.dcf
│   ├── settings.json
│   └── staging
├── renv.lock
├── run.R
└── wrangling
    └── scrape_historic.R

• R/ contains functions used in the targets pipeline.
• _targets is generated by targets::tar_make() and only the metadata of the targets pipeline is on GitHub.
• _targets.R defines a targets workflow
• _targets_packages.R is generated by targets::tar_renv()
• data/ contains the .csv file of the historic data (since 2003)
• notes/ contains quarto documents of notes / analysis. sliding-windows.qmd is an exploration of a sliding-window quantile approach that is probably not going to work for us. azmet-qaqc.qmd is an exploration of QA by forecasting.
• renv/ and renv.lock are necessary for the renv package to work (see above)
• run.R is for conveniently running tar_make() as a background job. Created by targets::use_targets()
• wrangling/ contains a script for scraping weather data from 2003 onward that isn’t available through the API / the azmetr package. This should only need to be run once ever.

Collaboration guidelines

To contribute to this project, please create a new branch for your changes and make a pull request. One easy way to do this from within R is with the usethis package and the pr_* functions. pr_init("branch-name") begins a new branch locally, pr_push() helps you create a new pull request, and after it is merged you can use pr_finish() to clean things up. More about this workflow here.