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whynotkimhari committed May 26, 2024
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\documentclass[compress,mathserif,fleqn,10pt]{beamer}
\documentclass[compress, mathserif, fleqn, 10pt]{beamer}
\useoutertheme{split}
\useoutertheme[subsection=false]{smoothbars}
\useinnertheme[shadow=true]{rounded}
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\def\beamer@writeslidentry@miniframesoff{%
\expandafter\beamer@ifempty\expandafter{\beamer@framestartpage}{}% does not happen normally
{%else

% removed \addtocontents commands
\clearpage\beamer@notesactions%
}
}
} }
\newcommand*{\miniframeson}{\let\beamer@writeslidentry=\beamer@writeslidentry@miniframeson}
\newcommand*{\miniframesoff}{\let\beamer@writeslidentry=\beamer@writeslidentry@miniframesoff}
\makeatother
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\usepackage{tikz}

\title{Transformers and Multi-features Time2Vec for Financial Prediction}
\author[Bui Nguyen Kim Hai, Nguyen Duy Chien]{Bui Nguyen Kim Hai, Nguyen Duy Chien}
\author{[}
Bui
Nguyen
Kim
Hai,
Nguyen
Duy
Chien]{Bui Nguyen Kim Hai, Nguyen Duy Chien}
%\institute{Department of Numerical Analysis, Faculty of Informatics\\ ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary}
\date{\scriptsize \emph{TDK CONFERENCE – IT SCIENCE SECTION, 2024 SPRING}\\\bigskip Budapest, Hungary\\ May 29, 2024}
\date{\scriptsize \emph{TDK CONFERENCE – IT SCIENCE SECTION, 2024 SPRING}\\
\bigskip
Budapest, Hungary\\ May 29, 2024}

\begin{document}

\abovedisplayskip=1pt
\belowdisplayskip=2pt
\abovedisplayshortskip=1pt
\belowdisplayshortskip=2pt
\abovedisplayskip=1pt \belowdisplayskip=2pt \abovedisplayshortskip=1pt \belowdisplayshortskip=2pt

\begin{frame}
\titlepage
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}\frametitle{Outline}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Outline}
\tableofcontents
\end{frame}

\section{Introduction}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Outline}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Outline}
\tableofcontents[currentsection]
\end{frame}

\subsection{Motivation}
\begin{frame}{Motivation}
\begin{block}{By other works}
\begin{itemize}
\item Researchers try to combine Time2Vec with CNN, RNN, LSTM, and Attention mechanism
\item Researchers try to combine Time2Vec with CNN, RNN, LSTM, and
Attention mechanism

\item For instances:

\begin{itemize}
\item Aeroengine Risk Assessment
\item Predicting Production in Shale and Sandstone Gas Reservoirs
\item Stock Price Forecasting
\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}
\item Aeroengine Risk Assessment

\item Predicting Production in Shale and Sandstone Gas Reservoirs

\item Stock Price Forecasting
\end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
\smallskip
Expand All @@ -85,7 +96,9 @@
\begin{block}{By observing trends}
\begin{itemize}
\item Stock's trend is a Markov process

\item Historical data offers limited foresight

\item Stocks having similar trend is more promising
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
Expand All @@ -94,7 +107,7 @@
\begin{frame}{Motivation: Cross-correlation to NASDAQ}
\centerline{\includegraphics[width=0.85\textwidth]{images/nas_base.eps}}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Motivation: Cross-correlation to Exxon Mobil}
\centerline{\includegraphics[width=0.85\textwidth]{images/exx_base.eps}}
\end{frame}
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Handling temporal problems in sequential data and time-series analysis.
\end{block}
\begin{block}{LSTM}
Using gates, LSTM enables network to learn long-term dependencies and prevent the vanishing gradient problem.
Using gates, LSTM enables network to learn long-term dependencies and
prevent the vanishing gradient problem.
\end{block}
\begin{block}{Transformer}
The SOTA architecture that works well in many area such as NLP, and time-series
The SOTA architecture that works well in many area such as NLP, and time-series
\end{block}
\begin{block}{Time2Vec}
Use to embed the time-series data to vector
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\section{Proposed model and techniques}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Outline}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Outline}
\tableofcontents[currentsection]
\end{frame}

%\subsection{Behavioral similarity of stocks}
%\begin{frame}{Behavioral similarity of stocks}

%\end{frame}

\subsection{Data collection}
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\begin{block}{Collected datasets}
\begin{itemize}
\item \structure{Group1}: NASDAQ, S\&P500, DJI, DAX

\item \structure{Group2}: Exxon Mobil, Chervon
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
Expand All @@ -154,9 +170,13 @@
\begin{block}{Techniques}
\begin{itemize}
\item \structure{Fill-forward}: Filling missing data in dataset

\item \structure{Moving Average}: Smoothing dataset by averaging data

\item \structure{Percentage Change}: Compute the difference in the data

\item \structure{Min-Max Normalization}: Normalizing dataset

\item \structure{Geometry Mean Not NaN (GMNN)}: Combining multiple datasets
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
Expand All @@ -172,12 +192,12 @@
\begin{itemize}
\item \structure{Union}: Handling length difference when combining datasets
\smallskip

\item \structure{Invariant}: Keeping the data stays normalized
\smallskip

\item \structure{Representation}: The output reflects the whole datasets
\smallskip

\end{itemize}
\end{block}
\vspace*{1cm}
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\begin{block}{Roles}
\begin{itemize}
\item \structure{Time2Vec}
\begin{itemize}
\item \structure{Linear}: Capturing linear trends \smallskip
\item \structure{Sine, Cosine}: Encoding positions and capturing periodic behaviors \smallskip
\item \structure{Concat}: Concatenating above three layers
\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}
\item \structure{Linear}: Capturing linear trends
\smallskip

\item \structure{Sine, Cosine}: Encoding positions and capturing
periodic behaviors
\smallskip

\item \structure{Concat}: Concatenating above three layers
\end{itemize}
\bigskip

\item \structure{Attention Layers}
\begin{itemize}
\item To study the trend from different aspects, positions \smallskip
\end{itemize}
\begin{itemize}
\item To study the trend from different aspects, positions
\smallskip
\end{itemize}
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
\end{column}
Expand All @@ -230,10 +257,15 @@
\begin{block}{Roles}
\begin{itemize}
\item \structure{Time2Vec}: Catch continuous attribute of time

\item \structure{Concat}: Apply Residual Connection

\item \structure{Attention}: Deep understanding trend movements

\item \structure{Pooling}: Reducing dimension

\item \structure{Dropout}: Prevent over-fitting

\item \structure{Dense}: Apply activation functions (ReLU)
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
Expand All @@ -254,7 +286,9 @@
\begin{minipage}[t][2cm][t]{\textwidth}
\begin{itemize}
\item De-normalized

\item De-percentage change

\item De-moving average
\end{itemize}
\end{minipage}
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\begin{minipage}[t][2cm][t]{\textwidth}
\begin{itemize}
\item Output is \textbf{normalized} (Invariant)

\item Target is \textbf{one} dataset, output only reflects that one
\end{itemize}
\end{minipage}
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\centerline{Comparing 6 metrics with respect to Exxon (Left), NASDAQ (Right)}
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}\frametitle{Conclusion}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Conclusion}
\begin{block}{Conclusion}
\smallskip
By leveraging multiple criteria to evaluate the proposed model such as
\begin{itemize}
\item MAE, MAPE, RMSE, MSE, R2-score (price prediction task)
\smallskip

\item Accuracy (trend forecasting task)
\end{itemize}
\bigskip

We can proudly say that, the multi-feature model
\begin{itemize}
\item \textbf{Outperforms} the single-feature one in most cases and they are \textbf{extremely close} to each other in other scenarios.
\smallskip
\item Usually yields \textbf{better} result than the SOTA in almost every contexts.
\end{itemize}
\smallskip
\bigskip

We can proudly say that, the multi-feature model
\begin{itemize}
\item \textbf{Outperforms} the single-feature one in most cases and they
are \textbf{extremely close} to each other in other scenarios.
\smallskip

\item Usually yields \textbf{better} result than the SOTA in almost
every contexts.
\end{itemize}
\smallskip
\end{block}
\end{frame}

\section{Summary}
\begin{frame}\frametitle{Outline}
\begin{frame}
\frametitle{Outline}
\tableofcontents[currentsection]
\end{frame}

\begin{frame}{Summary}
\begin{exampleblock}{Summary}
\begin{itemize}
\item We explore deep learning for challenging stock price prediction
\item Paving the way for new feature studies and applications in various deep learning models
\item Demonstrates correlation-based features and innovative neural networks improve stock
price prediction

\item Paving the way for new feature studies and applications in various
deep learning models

\item Demonstrates correlation-based features and innovative neural networks
improve stock price prediction
\end{itemize}
\end{exampleblock}

\begin{block}{Further Research}
\begin{itemize}
\item Fine-tuning the architecture

\item Continuing improving processing methods

\item Comparing to other SOTA neural networks like KAN

\item Applying the architecture to other areas
\end{itemize}
\end{block}
\end{frame}
\miniframesoff
\section*{}
\begin{frame}
\begin{beamercolorbox}[sep=8pt,center,shadow=true,rounded=true]{title}
\usebeamerfont{title}Thank you for your attention!\par%
\begin{beamercolorbox}
[sep=8pt,center,shadow=true,rounded=true]{title} \usebeamerfont{title}Thank
you for your attention!\par%
\end{beamercolorbox}
\end{frame}
\end{document}

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